***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 24.6 26.0 27.2 0.9 61.9 58.1 22.3 23.8 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 22.9 25.9 27.0 0.9 61.8 57.2 22.2 24.3 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.1 25.6 27.6 1.1 62.9 58.8 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 18.9 18.7 25.7 1.5 69.2 63.5 15.7 16.8 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 26.4 26.1 25.9 1.1 63.4 59.5 23.3 24.6 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 24.9 24.6 23.5 1.0 62.4 60.4 22.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 22.6 24.8 26.9 0.7 60.8 56.5 22.1 23.9 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.0 24.4 0.9 60.9 58.0 12.1 13.5 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 26.2 26.1 26.2 1.3 66.6 60.9 23.3 24.2 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 25.9 25.1 25.1 1.3 66.0 60.9 23.3 24.0 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 25.1 25.7 25.7 0.9 60.0 57.8 23.0 24.2 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 24.4 24.6 25.6 0.7 57.6 56.4 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 23.7 25.5 24.7 0.7 56.9 56.5 23.9 25.1 26.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.9 25.2 0.8 59.7 56.1 23.5 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 26.6 26.4 26.8 1.5 68.5 64.0 24.0 25.1 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 23.9 26.8 25.4 0.9 61.2 58.7 24.2 25.3 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 22.2 24.5 26.6 0.8 61.4 57.1 22.0 23.4 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 24.1 24.6 24.3 1.2 64.4 60.1 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 24.9 25.9 27.2 0.9 61.9 57.2 22.4 23.9 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.6 20.2 21.6 0.8 59.1 57.1 17.9 19.9 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.9 26.8 1.1 62.4 59.4 22.8 24.1 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 22.7 26.1 26.6 0.9 63.2 57.3 22.6 24.1 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.9 27.2 0.8 60.1 56.1 22.9 23.9 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 22.3 25.1 25.6 1.1 63.5 58.8 23.0 24.0 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 26.5 25.3 25.7 1.1 63.8 60.0 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.2 25.3 0.9 59.2 58.1 22.9 24.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 22.7 25.1 26.4 1.0 62.4 59.0 22.8 23.9 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 26.5 26.4 26.1 1.5 68.2 63.7 24.0 25.1 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.7 20.1 23.1 1.0 61.0 58.4 17.4 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 22.7 25.3 27.1 0.9 60.9 57.3 22.5 24.1 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------