***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 27.9 27.5 28.9 1.5 68.9 62.9 25.4 26.8 27.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 27.7 27.5 28.7 1.4 67.6 62.5 25.2 26.7 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 27.4 27.6 29.3 1.6 69.4 63.5 25.8 26.3 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 20.6 20.9 27.6 2.2 74.4 70.2 18.4 19.7 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 28.2 28.5 27.6 1.6 69.0 64.2 25.9 27.5 28.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 27.6 27.9 25.4 1.7 71.4 67.5 24.7 26.8 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 27.5 26.9 28.5 1.3 66.3 62.1 24.9 26.6 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 16.2 17.1 26.3 1.6 67.2 63.8 14.6 15.9 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 27.7 27.9 28.0 1.9 72.0 66.3 25.5 26.9 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 27.6 27.7 27.0 2.0 72.0 66.8 25.0 26.8 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 27.4 27.9 27.5 1.4 65.4 62.0 25.8 27.1 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 27.0 27.4 27.6 1.4 64.4 61.7 25.1 26.7 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 28.3 28.5 26.7 1.4 63.8 61.9 25.9 28.0 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 27.0 27.1 26.8 1.2 62.7 60.5 25.0 26.6 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 28.6 29.3 28.8 2.2 75.8 70.9 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 28.7 29.1 27.3 1.6 66.9 64.0 26.9 28.5 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 26.7 26.5 28.4 1.5 67.2 63.1 24.5 25.8 26.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 26.7 26.8 26.1 1.9 71.4 66.1 24.3 25.9 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 27.5 27.1 28.9 1.4 66.8 62.1 25.0 26.7 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 22.6 23.4 23.6 1.5 66.9 63.2 20.5 22.2 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 27.7 27.6 28.5 1.7 69.7 64.2 25.5 27.0 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 27.1 27.1 28.3 1.5 68.0 63.2 24.8 26.5 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 27.7 27.1 28.8 1.2 63.2 60.5 25.0 26.7 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 27.3 27.1 27.3 1.7 69.2 64.0 24.9 26.3 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 27.9 27.9 27.4 1.7 71.2 65.5 25.7 26.5 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 27.9 28.3 27.6 1.7 67.0 65.1 25.7 27.7 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 27.7 27.4 28.1 1.6 70.3 64.6 25.1 26.7 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 28.6 28.9 28.1 2.2 74.9 70.6 25.6 27.4 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 22.6 21.8 25.0 1.7 68.7 64.1 20.0 21.4 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 27.5 27.2 28.8 1.4 67.2 62.5 25.2 26.4 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------