***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 31.3 31.7 30.4 2.0 73.8 73.4 28.6 29.7 31.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 29.9 30.7 29.7 1.2 68.6 67.1 28.0 29.7 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 31.1 31.3 30.4 1.8 72.3 71.2 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 24.6 25.9 28.5 3.0 88.6 84.3 21.1 23.2 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 32.3 32.8 28.8 1.8 75.6 72.4 28.2 30.3 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 30.8 32.4 27.8 3.1 91.9 88.2 27.4 29.5 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 29.6 30.6 29.5 1.2 68.6 67.2 27.9 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 19.9 20.5 27.4 2.3 81.9 78.3 16.4 18.3 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 31.3 31.1 29.7 1.9 76.0 74.1 27.7 29.4 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 31.0 31.9 28.2 2.4 81.4 78.8 27.2 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 31.6 31.0 29.1 1.3 69.2 67.0 28.0 30.1 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 31.1 31.7 28.7 2.0 79.0 75.5 27.1 29.3 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 32.5 33.7 29.8 2.3 82.0 77.6 28.4 30.6 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 47 53 100 30.2 30.7 28.2 1.0 68.6 65.4 27.9 28.7 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 31.9 34.0 31.6 2.8 86.2 82.6 28.8 30.3 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 33.2 33.8 29.2 1.9 77.9 73.9 29.0 31.4 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 29.3 30.0 29.0 1.1 66.5 65.6 27.2 29.0 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 29.7 30.2 26.9 2.1 78.5 76.0 26.9 28.6 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 29.1 30.8 29.8 1.2 69.0 67.1 27.6 28.8 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 26.8 27.9 25.5 2.5 85.1 81.7 22.7 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 31.2 31.2 30.2 1.9 75.9 73.3 27.7 29.7 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 29.8 30.6 28.8 1.0 66.8 65.1 28.0 29.5 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 49 51 100 30.3 30.4 29.8 1.2 69.1 66.5 27.7 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 30.1 30.4 28.8 1.6 72.6 70.8 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 31.1 31.3 29.1 1.8 75.2 72.6 28.3 29.5 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 32.3 33.9 29.5 3.2 89.9 86.5 27.9 29.9 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 30.9 31.4 29.6 1.9 75.8 74.0 28.1 29.3 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 31.8 33.7 29.9 2.9 88.5 84.1 28.7 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 25.7 26.6 26.2 2.1 78.9 75.6 23.0 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 46 54 100 30.5 30.9 30.0 1.4 69.4 68.8 27.9 29.4 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------