***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 14.8 14.9 18.1 1.1 76.6 72.4 14.0 14.4 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 14.8 14.8 17.5 0.8 71.2 67.8 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 17.0 17.1 18.2 1.0 74.3 71.3 16.0 16.2 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 12.6 13.0 15.7 1.2 80.5 76.6 11.1 12.0 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.4 15.8 0.9 75.5 71.7 12.4 12.7 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 12.4 12.6 13.8 1.1 81.5 77.2 11.6 12.0 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 14.8 15.0 17.6 0.7 70.1 66.1 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 8.1 8.3 13.7 1.0 78.2 74.1 7.2 7.4 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 14.5 14.6 16.0 1.0 77.9 74.8 13.6 14.1 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 14.3 14.4 14.5 1.1 79.3 75.6 13.4 14.0 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 13.9 13.8 15.3 0.7 71.2 67.9 13.0 13.5 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 12.1 12.3 14.5 0.9 73.4 70.7 11.3 11.8 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 12.9 13.1 13.8 0.6 67.9 66.2 12.4 12.8 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 15.1 15.0 15.4 0.7 69.9 67.4 14.0 14.8 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 15.8 16.1 17.4 1.2 80.1 77.4 14.4 15.1 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 45 55 100 14.8 14.9 14.6 0.7 70.4 68.0 13.8 14.5 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 15.2 15.3 17.1 0.7 70.9 66.2 14.2 14.9 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 13.0 13.1 13.4 0.9 76.0 72.7 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 14.7 14.8 17.6 0.8 71.0 67.7 14.1 14.3 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 8.8 9.0 11.5 0.9 76.5 72.6 7.9 8.3 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 14.1 14.1 17.2 1.0 75.6 72.2 13.3 13.7 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 14.0 14.2 17.1 0.7 68.4 65.3 13.2 13.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 14.1 14.1 17.6 0.7 69.1 66.5 13.3 13.7 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 14.7 14.7 15.5 0.9 73.5 71.3 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 14.5 14.6 17.0 1.1 77.8 74.4 13.6 14.0 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 13.5 13.7 13.7 1.0 77.7 73.5 12.5 13.2 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 14.9 15.1 17.5 1.1 78.1 74.1 14.0 14.3 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 13.2 13.4 16.1 1.2 79.8 76.8 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 12.3 12.4 12.8 0.9 75.9 72.6 11.1 11.6 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 15.1 15.2 17.9 0.9 72.7 68.9 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------