***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.3 16.4 0.7 60.1 57.8 11.4 12.0 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.7 16.0 0.5 60.8 56.2 11.1 12.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.1 15.3 16.7 0.7 63.0 59.9 13.1 13.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 10.3 10.5 14.2 1.0 68.2 64.2 7.7 8.6 10.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.8 14.1 0.8 62.0 61.3 10.0 11.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.6 12.5 0.8 63.5 63.1 9.4 9.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 11.0 12.7 16.1 0.5 60.5 55.9 11.6 12.5 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 6.5 6.2 12.2 0.8 63.3 62.3 4.3 5.2 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 12.9 12.5 14.2 0.8 62.8 62.0 11.2 12.1 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 12.7 12.5 12.8 0.8 63.3 63.0 11.4 12.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 12.2 12.3 13.7 0.7 62.7 61.5 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.3 12.9 0.7 61.7 61.1 9.4 10.1 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.2 12.0 0.6 58.5 58.8 10.3 10.9 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.0 13.2 13.9 0.5 59.2 57.9 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.7 15.7 1.1 67.6 65.4 12.3 12.9 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.9 13.1 0.8 62.6 61.7 11.6 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 11.4 13.0 15.7 0.5 61.3 56.2 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 11.6 11.3 11.7 0.7 62.7 62.2 10.2 11.1 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 10.9 12.5 16.1 0.6 61.1 56.8 11.4 12.0 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 7.7 7.5 9.6 0.6 59.9 59.7 5.8 7.2 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.2 15.5 0.7 62.5 60.2 10.7 11.9 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 10.7 12.5 15.7 0.6 62.7 56.8 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 10.6 12.2 16.0 0.5 61.2 57.0 10.6 12.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 12.8 13.0 13.8 0.7 62.8 61.7 11.4 12.0 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.4 15.1 0.8 62.6 59.5 11.0 11.8 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.5 12.0 0.7 58.8 59.7 10.4 11.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.6 15.7 0.7 61.1 58.5 11.0 11.7 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.3 14.6 1.1 68.3 65.1 10.1 10.8 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 10.2 10.7 11.2 0.6 61.9 60.4 8.1 8.7 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.1 12.7 16.3 0.6 61.7 56.9 11.5 12.1 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------