***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 14.3 15.1 17.9 1.1 67.1 63.6 12.8 14.0 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.5 17.6 1.1 66.8 62.8 12.6 13.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 17.1 16.9 18.2 1.1 67.6 64.5 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 12.3 12.7 15.7 1.4 75.3 69.9 10.2 11.2 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 13.7 13.6 15.3 1.0 67.5 63.9 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.5 12.8 13.8 1.1 73.2 67.6 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.9 17.6 0.9 64.7 61.4 13.1 13.8 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 8.0 8.1 13.5 1.0 70.5 65.0 6.4 7.0 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 14.9 14.9 15.5 1.0 68.3 65.1 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 14.6 14.5 14.1 1.1 71.4 66.5 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 14.3 14.0 14.9 0.9 68.0 62.7 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.4 14.1 0.8 66.4 61.8 11.2 11.8 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.5 13.1 0.6 62.0 59.3 12.1 13.1 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.6 15.1 15.2 0.8 65.5 62.2 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.2 17.1 1.4 75.0 70.5 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.8 14.2 0.8 66.4 62.4 13.5 14.5 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 14.6 15.4 17.2 0.9 65.3 61.6 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 13.1 13.1 13.0 1.0 71.5 65.4 11.7 12.4 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.2 15.2 17.6 1.0 66.7 63.0 12.9 13.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 9.3 9.4 10.8 0.8 68.4 62.9 7.4 8.6 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 14.5 14.4 17.0 1.1 66.9 64.3 12.6 13.2 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 13.4 14.1 17.0 0.9 65.9 61.8 12.8 13.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 13.8 14.3 17.5 0.9 63.9 62.0 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 14.8 14.9 15.2 1.0 69.9 65.0 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 14.6 15.0 16.6 1.3 70.3 66.4 12.7 13.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 13.7 13.7 13.3 0.9 66.2 62.8 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 14.7 15.2 17.2 1.2 69.5 65.3 12.1 13.5 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.9 16.0 1.4 75.0 70.0 12.0 12.9 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.3 12.5 0.9 70.2 64.2 10.4 11.1 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 14.3 15.2 17.9 1.1 67.9 63.3 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------