***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 14.6 15.2 17.6 -0.2 48.0 47.7 14.9 15.2 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 14.1 14.8 16.9 -0.5 45.5 43.3 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 16.2 17.3 17.7 -0.3 47.5 46.8 16.9 17.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 11.9 13.5 15.4 0.3 57.1 54.0 11.8 13.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.4 15.5 -0.3 45.8 46.6 12.9 13.5 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.8 13.6 0.4 53.6 55.0 12.1 12.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 14.1 14.7 16.9 -0.6 40.8 42.7 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.3 8.4 13.4 -0.1 48.6 49.6 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 13.6 14.7 15.7 -0.1 48.2 48.1 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 13.9 14.7 14.1 -0.1 48.4 49.3 13.9 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 13.1 13.5 15.1 -0.4 42.5 44.1 13.3 13.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 11.6 12.4 14.3 -0.1 47.1 48.2 11.7 12.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 12.6 13.2 13.8 -0.2 43.9 46.6 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 14.4 15.0 14.9 -0.6 39.2 42.2 14.8 15.4 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.1 17.4 0.4 56.9 54.6 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 14.2 15.1 14.6 -0.2 44.4 47.2 14.6 15.3 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 14.4 15.1 16.5 -0.6 41.2 41.9 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 11.7 12.4 13.1 -0.2 44.1 46.9 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.7 17.0 -0.5 45.3 43.6 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 8.3 8.7 11.3 -0.1 45.0 48.5 8.3 9.0 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 13.3 14.3 16.8 -0.2 48.0 47.4 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 13.4 14.1 16.6 -0.7 40.4 41.2 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 13.7 14.1 17.1 -0.6 42.1 43.1 13.7 14.4 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 13.9 14.5 15.1 -0.4 42.3 44.8 14.3 14.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 14.9 14.4 16.6 -0.1 50.4 49.4 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 13.1 13.9 13.6 0.3 50.6 53.7 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.3 17.0 -0.1 49.4 48.9 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.6 16.0 0.4 56.4 54.5 12.9 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 11.5 12.4 12.5 -0.2 43.8 47.0 12.0 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 14.4 15.4 17.3 -0.4 45.1 44.7 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------