***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 16.8 17.2 20.5 2.7 89.7 87.6 14.8 15.7 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 16.5 17.0 19.6 2.2 87.9 84.9 15.2 15.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 19.2 20.0 20.3 2.4 88.8 87.0 17.2 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 15.4 16.1 17.4 2.1 88.8 85.7 12.5 14.0 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 15.2 15.6 18.2 2.1 87.9 86.0 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 14.2 14.8 15.4 2.2 89.7 88.2 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 16.8 17.3 19.6 2.1 85.1 82.7 15.3 15.7 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 10.2 11.9 15.8 2.4 91.8 89.1 8.1 8.8 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 16.3 17.3 18.6 2.5 91.0 89.2 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 16.3 17.2 16.8 2.5 92.4 90.1 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 15.7 16.1 17.6 1.7 84.1 80.7 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 13.8 14.4 16.8 2.1 88.6 85.7 12.6 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 15.0 15.5 16.2 1.6 85.8 81.2 13.1 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 16.8 17.5 17.7 2.0 88.7 85.9 15.2 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 17.4 18.0 19.6 2.1 89.4 86.3 15.7 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 16.6 17.4 16.7 1.4 84.5 79.0 14.8 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 17.0 17.6 19.1 2.0 86.7 83.1 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 14.8 15.2 15.8 2.2 90.5 88.3 12.3 13.6 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 16.5 17.3 19.7 2.2 88.2 84.7 15.0 15.7 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 10.6 11.2 14.1 2.3 93.6 90.8 9.1 9.8 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 16.0 16.8 19.4 2.2 89.5 87.3 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 15.8 16.4 19.2 1.8 85.2 80.8 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 15.8 16.5 19.7 2.0 88.7 84.0 14.4 15.0 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 16.3 17.3 17.9 2.2 90.1 87.8 14.8 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 16.5 17.0 19.6 2.6 88.3 86.9 14.5 15.7 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 15.1 15.8 15.7 2.1 92.7 88.3 14.2 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 17.0 18.7 20.0 2.7 88.8 87.3 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 15.0 15.7 18.0 2.0 88.5 85.1 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 14.5 15.4 15.2 2.4 92.8 90.2 12.2 12.7 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 17.2 17.8 20.1 2.3 87.6 85.6 15.2 16.0 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------