***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 30.1 88.3 56.5 41.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 23.2 53.4 35.2 98.7 61.8 43.4 22.4 33.2 59.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 27.2 50.6 31.8 92.8 59.2 42.4 27.8 43.1 62.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 32.7 51.8 30.6 92.4 56.0 40.2 36.0 47.0 61.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 22.9 46.5 32.6 95.8 58.4 42.6 18.8 37.3 51.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 23.0 37.0 40.4 91.7 48.7 41.9 22.2 39.8 58.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 23.7 38.3 33.8 91.0 56.3 41.4 21.2 36.0 49.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 50.3 74.2 36.7 98.3 57.6 47.0 52.0 66.8 88.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 24.2 44.7 34.0 97.5 61.7 43.3 28.9 37.9 48.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 31.9 55.3 39.1 98.5 58.8 45.5 36.8 47.2 59.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 25.2 46.0 29.6 95.3 56.6 44.3 23.8 38.9 50.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 25.4 47.7 27.8 93.4 55.9 44.5 31.8 40.5 52.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 25.6 40.5 31.9 88.4 49.6 40.1 27.1 40.8 52.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 38.3 68.9 46.9 105.3 66.9 47.2 40.6 49.5 66.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 12.3 25.4 25.0 86.6 53.3 37.7 13.1 24.2 43.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 23.9 43.3 29.9 91.3 54.2 41.3 35.3 42.1 49.6 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 26.8 46.2 35.9 100.7 60.2 44.5 24.8 43.2 48.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 31.9 50.0 47.5 103.2 57.3 47.2 36.5 46.5 54.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 24.4 55.1 35.4 100.9 65.0 44.4 23.1 38.7 55.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 41.1 59.1 49.6 102.3 57.4 48.3 42.9 54.6 64.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 23.4 45.6 30.7 95.8 59.8 43.6 23.8 34.5 65.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 31.4 58.0 38.2 109.5 68.7 48.3 32.2 43.1 53.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 26.1 61.9 36.9 101.4 65.6 44.5 23.8 41.3 62.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 35.9 55.7 42.6 102.1 60.7 46.2 38.2 50.1 66.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 22.3 36.1 33.7 89.6 51.9 40.7 21.6 34.5 49.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 21.7 27.0 26.5 87.3 48.6 42.4 23.2 27.8 37.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 25.0 41.6 33.5 86.3 51.2 40.9 20.1 40.1 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 17.2 34.5 28.7 91.6 55.6 39.5 20.5 33.8 37.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 48.3 75.9 50.2 105.5 57.7 48.6 56.5 65.7 82.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 22.8 44.4 33.8 94.5 59.8 42.6 22.6 36.3 50.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------