***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.9 76.3 64.6 44.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.4 9.3 7.4 100.0 68.5 47.1 0.6 3.2 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 1.8 8.2 6.7 86.0 64.5 46.5 0.4 4.4 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.8 20.5 5.9 81.7 66.2 46.4 3.7 8.3 20.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.3 16.0 6.6 84.9 64.7 45.3 2.4 5.9 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 2.6 10.0 9.7 100.9 66.6 43.6 2.6 7.7 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.4 8.9 7.2 94.5 65.2 46.4 1.0 6.0 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.1 28.1 8.6 106.8 69.5 47.5 11.9 17.4 26.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.7 17.1 7.2 85.3 64.0 46.1 3.9 8.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.4 19.7 8.9 98.6 67.2 47.6 2.9 6.8 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.8 18.5 6.5 97.5 69.0 46.2 3.2 7.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.8 21.2 6.3 101.0 68.7 46.0 2.2 9.3 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 4.0 18.8 7.0 95.3 66.3 43.0 4.5 11.1 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.2 16.3 11.6 114.9 67.7 51.3 1.8 11.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.8 6.5 5.3 88.2 71.7 49.0 0.4 1.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.7 15.2 6.5 96.3 68.7 43.4 3.4 9.2 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.2 13.5 8.5 123.0 70.5 48.0 1.7 5.2 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 18.9 10.8 102.5 67.0 50.6 1.9 14.3 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.3 10.6 7.5 100.2 68.8 47.7 2.2 5.4 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 23.8 12.3 112.6 68.9 51.0 3.9 15.3 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.4 11.6 6.4 82.6 66.2 46.0 1.1 6.0 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.7 15.1 8.6 124.3 70.4 49.2 5.0 10.6 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.3 12.4 8.2 101.3 68.7 48.8 1.8 5.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.3 15.8 9.7 100.4 66.7 50.1 1.1 6.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.9 11.2 6.7 80.8 63.9 46.2 0.5 6.7 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.8 11.8 6.3 99.2 67.6 45.4 1.0 7.0 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.3 8.5 6.6 78.1 63.7 45.3 0.0 3.1 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.7 15.0 5.8 88.6 69.6 46.0 1.5 6.4 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.6 27.8 12.0 112.5 68.4 51.9 9.0 15.8 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.5 6.3 6.8 88.8 66.0 46.2 0.5 3.5 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------