***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.5 101.7 67.6 47.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.1 13.6 7.5 89.2 62.3 43.7 3.8 5.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.8 19.2 7.1 93.3 64.9 45.0 4.1 14.2 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.8 19.6 7.8 110.6 62.1 47.5 3.9 8.5 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.4 22.2 8.1 109.0 67.0 45.8 4.3 10.1 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.5 13.1 10.4 90.3 62.0 46.4 2.5 9.9 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.9 9.8 7.6 88.5 62.3 44.2 2.6 5.8 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.9 25.3 8.8 91.9 63.6 47.3 7.4 20.0 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 5.1 15.6 8.2 106.9 69.4 45.0 5.3 7.7 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.9 22.9 9.1 94.2 66.0 46.4 6.9 12.6 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.4 17.5 6.9 95.8 66.8 47.2 5.5 10.8 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.6 17.9 7.2 98.7 66.8 47.1 2.5 9.5 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.0 17.3 8.5 99.2 66.4 47.0 2.3 7.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.9 16.8 9.4 91.1 66.2 45.6 9.6 14.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.9 5.2 6.5 107.6 64.6 48.5 0.6 2.6 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.8 22.2 7.6 99.4 64.6 47.2 1.3 10.7 24.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.5 14.8 7.4 84.3 61.2 44.0 6.7 11.6 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.9 14.0 10.7 92.3 62.4 45.8 6.7 12.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.5 7.2 86.6 62.4 43.9 5.9 8.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.9 18.0 11.3 88.8 60.4 47.4 12.2 15.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.8 19.8 7.3 105.9 69.4 45.8 3.9 6.7 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.2 7.4 82.8 60.2 43.6 6.6 9.5 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.5 15.9 7.1 85.0 63.3 44.7 4.8 8.4 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.8 21.5 9.2 92.8 64.6 44.7 4.5 9.5 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.6 17.9 8.2 98.3 66.4 46.9 3.4 8.3 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.1 20.3 6.8 96.3 67.7 46.0 3.0 8.5 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.4 15.7 8.2 94.3 65.9 46.0 2.9 11.5 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.8 13.5 7.5 109.9 63.7 47.9 0.6 4.9 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.9 10.9 89.7 60.9 46.2 12.8 19.4 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.4 11.3 7.5 92.0 62.6 44.3 3.6 8.0 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------