***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.9 111.2 72.6 52.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.5 12.0 9.8 112.4 70.0 50.8 1.1 5.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.1 13.4 9.8 117.2 71.4 47.7 2.4 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.4 19.3 10.1 118.0 73.5 47.9 0.1 5.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 0.6 6.7 10.9 122.6 72.7 47.0 0.7 1.4 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 0.8 9.2 12.5 100.7 67.6 46.9 0.4 2.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.4 12.0 9.3 105.0 67.8 51.5 0.3 4.4 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.6 19.4 11.0 113.1 71.1 49.9 2.9 8.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 1.2 10.3 11.5 126.7 71.5 47.7 0.1 2.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 1.7 11.8 12.4 121.9 72.1 49.5 0.2 3.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 0.9 10.8 9.3 112.2 73.9 48.9 0.3 2.2 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 0.7 8.5 8.1 103.4 71.2 48.1 0.0 1.6 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 0.8 7.4 9.9 97.2 68.6 46.9 0.0 2.0 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.4 21.4 13.5 117.8 72.1 48.0 3.4 7.9 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 4.2 11.4 8.4 107.4 74.9 48.8 0.1 1.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.6 7.3 9.5 103.5 71.9 47.2 0.8 3.5 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.4 15.6 9.6 102.9 68.4 49.7 1.2 4.4 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 1.8 15.9 15.1 130.3 74.0 49.6 1.3 4.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.8 12.4 10.1 118.6 72.4 49.3 2.0 5.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 3.6 19.9 15.9 124.1 71.2 50.1 0.4 9.5 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 1.6 10.8 9.7 119.6 74.3 48.8 1.1 3.5 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.7 17.0 10.7 119.9 69.4 49.8 1.6 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.4 17.1 10.6 124.3 74.5 47.8 1.7 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 2.3 19.6 13.2 124.7 72.4 49.5 1.0 5.6 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 1.3 8.9 10.4 113.8 73.6 49.4 0.9 3.0 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 1.0 9.4 8.1 100.9 71.8 48.9 0.0 2.9 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.3 11.1 10.0 110.5 72.1 50.7 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 4.4 12.1 9.5 111.7 74.2 48.2 0.0 1.1 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 3.5 22.9 15.7 128.7 72.0 49.6 0.9 9.2 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.1 10.1 9.8 115.9 71.3 50.6 0.7 4.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------