***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 9999.0 0.0 28.8 1.8 86.0 77.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 28.1 28.5 28.5 1.5 79.9 72.9 26.4 27.3 28.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 28.4 29.2 28.7 1.7 83.5 75.3 26.7 27.1 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 21.7 22.1 27.1 1.4 81.3 73.7 19.5 20.8 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 29.3 30.0 27.1 1.5 81.9 73.5 26.8 28.0 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 27.9 28.5 24.7 1.3 82.0 74.4 26.1 27.2 27.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 27.8 28.1 28.4 1.6 80.1 74.3 26.2 27.1 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 17.4 17.7 25.1 1.2 76.4 71.1 15.4 16.4 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 28.6 29.4 27.5 1.6 82.5 75.3 26.6 27.4 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 28.4 28.9 25.9 1.4 79.7 73.1 26.3 26.9 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 29.3 29.9 26.7 1.5 83.5 74.6 26.5 27.7 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 28.3 29.1 26.4 1.4 80.9 73.7 25.8 27.2 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 29.6 30.5 26.1 1.6 85.5 75.7 27.0 28.2 28.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 28.4 28.8 26.6 1.3 79.0 70.9 26.2 27.2 27.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 29.2 29.8 28.1 1.7 83.5 77.1 27.2 28.0 28.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 30.1 30.9 26.6 1.5 84.4 75.6 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 27.6 27.9 28.0 1.4 79.2 72.2 25.6 26.5 27.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 27.4 27.7 24.8 1.2 77.8 70.8 25.7 26.2 27.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 28.0 28.6 28.6 1.5 81.1 72.8 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 23.7 24.0 22.6 0.9 73.4 67.2 21.7 22.7 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 29.0 29.5 28.3 1.6 82.5 75.1 26.7 27.3 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 27.9 28.1 27.9 1.3 78.0 70.8 26.3 26.9 27.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 27.9 28.7 28.4 1.5 82.8 73.1 26.2 27.2 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 28.0 28.6 26.7 1.4 80.7 72.6 26.1 26.7 27.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 28.7 29.7 27.4 1.7 84.6 76.9 26.7 27.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 29.3 29.7 25.9 1.2 76.9 71.7 26.8 27.9 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 28.4 29.4 28.0 1.7 85.8 77.4 26.3 27.3 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 29.3 29.8 27.5 1.4 80.4 73.8 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 23.0 23.3 23.8 1.1 76.3 69.4 20.8 21.9 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 28.2 28.4 28.8 1.6 80.7 74.1 26.4 27.1 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------