***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 27.2 1.1 65.3 61.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 22.8 25.0 26.8 0.7 58.8 57.2 22.2 24.3 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 26.5 25.7 27.2 1.1 63.7 60.3 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.9 25.5 0.7 60.7 58.1 15.7 16.8 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 25.3 26.1 25.4 0.9 62.8 59.4 23.3 24.6 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.1 24.7 23.3 0.9 62.9 61.0 22.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.4 26.7 0.8 58.6 57.8 22.1 23.9 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.1 23.6 0.8 62.2 58.8 12.1 13.5 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 26.2 25.9 25.8 1.0 62.5 60.6 23.3 24.2 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.8 25.0 24.4 0.9 62.4 59.6 23.3 24.0 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.9 25.1 1.0 64.6 61.0 23.0 24.2 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.8 24.8 0.9 63.1 60.4 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 25.6 26.1 24.5 1.0 65.4 61.5 23.9 25.1 26.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 22.3 25.3 25.2 0.9 61.8 57.8 23.5 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 25.6 25.6 26.1 0.8 61.6 59.0 24.0 25.1 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 25.9 27.0 24.9 1.0 64.2 61.0 24.2 25.3 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 22.2 24.1 26.2 0.5 56.8 55.5 22.0 23.4 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 21.9 24.1 23.4 0.8 60.9 58.1 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 22.6 25.2 27.0 0.8 60.4 57.7 22.4 23.9 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 18.3 20.3 21.1 0.5 60.4 56.0 17.9 19.9 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 25.0 25.9 26.6 1.1 63.1 60.6 22.8 24.1 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 22.6 24.7 26.2 0.5 58.0 55.4 22.6 24.1 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 22.5 25.8 26.8 1.0 63.7 58.8 22.9 23.9 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 22.3 24.9 25.2 1.0 62.7 59.1 23.0 24.0 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.1 25.3 25.7 1.0 62.6 60.7 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 25.3 25.2 24.3 0.7 60.3 59.2 22.9 24.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 26.4 25.3 26.3 1.1 63.4 61.0 22.8 23.9 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.8 25.7 0.7 60.2 58.2 24.0 25.1 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 17.4 20.1 22.3 0.7 60.5 57.3 17.4 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 24.9 25.4 27.1 0.9 61.4 58.6 22.5 24.1 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------