***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 0.0 28.7 2.2 77.8 72.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 27.8 28.1 28.6 2.1 76.6 70.1 25.2 26.7 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 27.4 27.9 28.7 2.1 78.2 71.0 25.8 26.3 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 20.7 21.0 27.0 1.7 75.1 69.0 18.4 19.7 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 28.3 28.6 26.9 1.7 74.9 68.7 25.9 27.5 28.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 27.7 28.0 24.5 1.4 76.2 68.0 24.7 26.8 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 27.6 27.7 28.5 2.1 77.1 71.1 24.9 26.6 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 16.9 17.2 25.0 1.5 74.8 67.2 14.6 15.9 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 27.9 28.2 27.2 1.9 75.6 69.5 25.5 26.9 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 27.8 28.0 25.7 1.7 75.7 68.2 25.0 26.8 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 28.1 28.6 26.5 1.8 76.5 69.8 25.8 27.1 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 27.8 28.4 26.2 1.7 75.9 68.9 25.1 26.7 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 29.1 29.1 25.8 1.7 75.7 69.3 25.9 28.0 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 27.6 27.9 26.5 1.8 75.5 68.1 25.0 26.6 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 28.8 29.3 27.7 1.9 76.7 71.8 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 29.5 29.7 26.3 1.7 76.1 69.7 26.9 28.5 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 26.9 27.2 28.1 2.0 77.1 70.2 24.5 25.8 26.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 26.7 27.0 24.7 1.6 74.5 66.9 24.3 25.9 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 27.6 27.6 28.6 2.0 76.8 69.8 25.0 26.7 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 23.5 23.5 22.4 1.2 71.0 64.1 20.5 22.2 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 27.7 28.1 28.1 2.0 77.7 70.6 25.5 27.0 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 27.2 27.5 28.0 1.9 77.1 69.0 24.8 26.5 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 27.7 27.9 28.3 2.0 76.1 69.6 25.0 26.7 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 27.4 27.7 26.6 1.9 76.5 68.8 24.9 26.3 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 27.9 28.5 27.3 2.1 77.9 72.2 25.7 26.5 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 28.6 28.5 25.7 1.3 72.3 66.2 25.7 27.7 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 27.6 28.1 27.9 2.2 77.9 72.7 25.1 26.7 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 28.8 28.9 27.2 1.6 74.6 69.0 25.6 27.4 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 22.7 22.4 23.6 1.5 73.3 66.1 20.0 21.4 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 27.6 27.9 28.8 2.1 76.8 70.6 25.2 26.4 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------