***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 0.0 29.8 2.1 84.0 70.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 30.0 30.9 29.5 1.8 80.2 67.7 27.5 28.5 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 30.0 31.4 29.7 1.9 82.2 68.3 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 24.2 25.3 28.2 1.7 78.8 67.9 21.0 22.1 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 31.2 32.0 28.1 1.7 79.9 67.0 28.1 29.9 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 30.4 30.9 25.8 1.7 78.1 68.3 26.9 29.1 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 29.7 30.5 29.5 1.9 82.2 69.2 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 19.4 20.1 26.0 1.4 76.2 64.7 15.7 17.7 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 30.7 31.7 28.4 1.8 80.2 67.4 27.3 29.4 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 30.7 31.4 26.8 1.6 77.6 65.5 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 31.0 31.7 27.6 1.8 79.9 67.9 27.6 29.6 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 30.7 31.6 27.3 1.7 78.4 67.3 26.5 28.7 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 31.6 32.4 27.0 1.8 79.2 68.1 28.1 29.9 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.7 30.5 27.5 1.6 78.0 63.8 27.5 28.1 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 31.4 32.5 29.0 2.1 81.6 72.4 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 32.2 33.2 27.4 1.8 80.2 68.2 28.9 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 29.2 30.0 29.0 1.8 80.0 67.7 26.4 27.8 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 29.3 29.9 25.7 1.4 75.9 63.0 26.0 27.8 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 29.6 30.5 29.6 1.8 80.1 66.9 27.3 28.3 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 26.0 26.3 23.4 1.0 69.7 60.3 22.5 23.6 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 30.7 32.0 29.2 1.9 82.5 68.2 27.6 29.1 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.0 30.4 28.9 1.6 78.5 65.5 27.2 28.6 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 29.5 30.6 29.3 1.8 80.8 66.5 27.3 28.0 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 29.8 31.2 27.6 1.6 79.6 65.0 27.0 28.3 29.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 30.4 32.6 28.5 2.0 84.4 70.5 27.7 29.1 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 31.2 31.5 26.8 1.4 76.3 65.1 27.6 29.8 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 29.9 31.9 29.0 2.1 84.3 70.5 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 31.4 32.2 28.5 1.7 78.5 68.5 28.4 30.0 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 25.2 25.9 24.6 1.2 74.2 61.8 21.8 23.1 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 30.0 31.1 29.8 1.9 81.4 68.3 27.2 28.5 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------