***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 9999.0 0.0 29.5 1.8 79.2 74.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 30.9 31.1 29.2 1.3 74.8 68.7 28.0 29.7 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 31.2 31.8 29.4 1.5 76.2 71.0 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 24.4 25.0 27.7 1.7 79.5 74.3 21.1 23.2 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 32.3 33.0 28.1 1.6 77.7 72.4 28.2 30.3 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 30.4 30.5 25.4 1.3 73.4 69.3 27.4 29.5 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 30.5 31.1 29.1 1.4 75.4 69.9 27.9 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 19.5 19.3 25.8 1.2 69.8 66.8 16.4 18.3 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 31.2 32.5 28.8 1.6 80.0 73.4 27.7 29.4 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 30.6 31.2 26.8 1.4 74.5 70.1 27.2 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 31.9 32.3 27.7 1.5 76.1 71.1 28.0 30.1 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 30.8 31.1 27.1 1.4 73.5 69.8 27.1 29.3 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 32.5 33.0 27.4 1.7 78.3 73.3 28.4 30.6 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 30.4 30.7 27.4 1.0 68.9 64.9 27.9 28.7 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 31.8 32.9 29.7 1.9 81.1 77.4 28.8 30.3 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 33.3 33.9 27.8 1.7 79.5 74.3 29.0 31.4 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 30.3 30.3 28.6 1.2 73.8 68.1 27.2 29.0 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 29.5 29.6 25.5 1.1 70.2 65.6 26.9 28.6 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 30.4 31.0 29.2 1.3 74.1 68.5 27.6 28.8 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 24.9 25.7 23.4 1.0 66.7 63.4 22.7 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 31.1 31.4 29.3 1.4 76.7 71.0 27.7 29.7 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 30.9 31.0 28.6 1.2 74.3 67.3 28.0 29.5 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 30.7 30.9 29.0 1.3 72.9 68.3 27.7 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 30.0 30.3 27.3 1.1 70.4 65.8 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 31.3 32.2 28.3 1.6 78.7 73.6 28.3 29.5 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 31.7 31.8 26.8 1.4 73.5 68.9 27.9 29.9 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 31.0 31.5 28.7 1.6 77.3 73.3 28.1 29.3 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 31.6 32.0 28.5 1.6 78.0 73.6 28.7 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 25.3 25.0 24.5 1.0 68.7 64.3 23.0 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 30.7 31.4 29.4 1.4 75.7 70.0 27.9 29.4 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------