***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 9999.0 0.0 17.8 1.2 85.4 78.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 14.9 15.2 17.6 1.0 84.6 73.3 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 17.1 17.8 17.7 1.2 87.9 78.5 16.0 16.2 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 12.6 13.2 15.7 0.9 81.8 75.6 11.1 12.0 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 13.3 13.5 15.6 0.9 83.0 75.7 12.4 12.7 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 12.4 12.6 13.8 0.9 81.7 75.1 11.6 12.0 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 14.9 15.3 17.7 1.0 84.2 74.9 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 8.1 8.4 13.7 0.9 81.1 74.6 7.2 7.4 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 14.5 14.9 16.1 1.1 86.9 78.9 13.6 14.1 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 14.3 14.8 14.3 0.9 83.6 76.3 13.4 14.0 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 14.0 14.3 15.2 1.0 83.8 77.4 13.0 13.5 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 12.2 12.4 14.6 1.0 82.9 76.7 11.3 11.8 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 13.2 13.6 14.0 0.9 82.4 75.6 12.4 12.8 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 15.2 15.4 15.7 0.9 84.2 73.9 14.0 14.8 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 15.9 16.1 17.0 1.3 88.9 82.2 14.4 15.1 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 14.9 15.3 14.9 1.0 83.6 77.4 13.8 14.5 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 15.2 15.4 17.0 0.8 80.5 70.7 14.2 14.9 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 13.0 13.2 13.4 0.8 81.3 73.9 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 14.7 15.1 17.5 1.0 85.4 74.7 14.1 14.3 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 8.8 9.0 11.6 0.6 76.2 68.9 7.9 8.3 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 14.1 14.8 17.1 1.1 86.2 78.1 13.3 13.7 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 14.2 14.5 17.0 0.8 81.9 71.4 13.2 13.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 14.1 14.6 17.4 1.1 86.0 77.1 13.3 13.7 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 14.7 15.0 15.6 1.0 85.4 76.5 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 14.5 14.7 16.4 1.2 84.5 79.0 13.6 14.0 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 13.6 13.8 13.9 0.7 79.9 72.9 12.5 13.2 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 14.9 15.3 17.0 1.2 84.9 78.5 14.0 14.3 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 13.3 13.5 16.2 1.0 83.8 76.9 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 12.3 12.6 12.8 0.8 80.3 73.1 11.1 11.6 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 15.1 15.6 17.8 1.1 85.4 75.4 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------