***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 16.0 0.5 57.6 57.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.7 15.9 0.4 58.9 56.8 11.1 12.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.1 15.3 15.9 0.6 62.4 58.7 13.1 13.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.8 13.9 0.2 55.5 54.5 7.7 8.6 10.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.8 11.6 13.7 0.3 59.1 55.6 10.0 11.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 9.0 10.4 11.9 0.2 55.2 55.4 9.4 9.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.6 15.9 0.4 57.1 56.5 11.6 12.5 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.9 11.8 0.2 59.3 55.8 4.3 5.2 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 11.0 12.4 14.1 0.4 60.5 57.3 11.2 12.1 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.9 12.4 12.4 0.3 60.4 56.2 11.4 12.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.3 13.3 0.4 63.1 58.1 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.3 12.8 0.4 61.0 57.7 9.4 10.1 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 10.0 11.2 12.2 0.3 58.1 56.8 10.3 10.9 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 13.6 13.5 14.0 0.4 66.1 58.6 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 13.6 13.5 14.9 0.4 61.6 58.3 12.3 12.9 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 11.2 12.8 13.0 0.4 60.1 57.5 11.6 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.6 15.3 0.2 54.3 54.5 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 9.7 11.3 11.6 0.2 63.0 56.0 10.2 11.1 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.5 15.9 0.5 61.7 58.0 11.4 12.0 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.4 10.1 0.1 56.2 53.5 5.8 7.2 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.0 15.1 0.4 59.9 57.3 10.7 11.9 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.2 15.3 0.3 56.8 55.9 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 10.6 12.5 15.6 0.6 65.8 60.0 10.6 12.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 11.1 13.0 13.8 0.5 65.9 58.5 11.4 12.0 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.2 14.5 0.5 57.8 57.7 11.0 11.8 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.6 12.5 0.4 61.2 57.7 10.4 11.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.4 15.2 0.5 57.0 57.5 11.0 11.7 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 9.9 11.1 14.2 0.2 57.1 55.2 10.1 10.8 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 10.2 10.4 11.1 0.2 60.1 56.1 8.1 8.7 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.6 16.1 0.5 59.4 57.5 11.5 12.1 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------