***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9999.0 0.0 19.0 1.7 82.2 75.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.0 16.8 18.9 1.5 79.0 70.6 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 18.5 19.3 18.9 1.7 82.4 74.2 16.9 17.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 14.6 15.1 16.9 1.3 78.5 72.0 11.8 13.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 14.1 14.4 16.7 1.3 79.2 71.2 12.9 13.5 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 13.4 13.7 15.0 1.4 80.6 72.5 12.1 12.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 16.6 17.8 18.9 1.5 81.2 71.5 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 9.6 10.2 15.0 1.3 80.2 70.9 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 15.9 16.4 17.2 1.5 82.2 73.7 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 15.2 15.8 15.5 1.4 81.4 71.7 13.9 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 14.9 15.2 16.4 1.5 80.1 73.2 13.3 13.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 13.2 13.4 15.8 1.4 80.6 73.2 11.7 12.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 14.2 14.4 15.0 1.3 78.4 71.8 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 16.1 17.1 16.9 1.3 83.9 70.2 14.8 15.4 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 16.7 17.4 18.0 1.8 84.3 78.5 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 15.8 16.0 15.9 1.4 78.7 72.9 14.6 15.3 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 16.7 17.5 18.3 1.3 78.3 68.4 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 13.8 14.5 14.6 1.2 81.1 69.4 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 16.2 17.3 18.8 1.5 79.3 71.0 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 9.4 9.7 12.9 1.0 73.5 65.1 8.3 9.0 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 15.3 15.9 18.2 1.6 81.9 74.1 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 15.5 16.2 18.2 1.3 77.7 67.8 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 15.5 16.2 18.6 1.6 81.9 71.9 13.7 14.4 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 15.8 16.6 16.8 1.4 84.1 72.1 14.3 14.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 15.7 16.7 17.5 1.7 84.8 75.5 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 14.4 14.5 14.9 1.0 74.0 69.1 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 16.4 17.2 18.2 1.7 84.1 75.2 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 14.2 14.5 17.3 1.4 79.4 73.9 12.9 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 13.5 14.0 14.0 1.2 81.2 68.1 12.0 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 16.6 17.6 19.1 1.6 80.8 72.1 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------