***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 18.5 1.0 73.4 67.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.9 17.8 0.5 60.8 60.5 15.2 15.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 18.6 19.2 18.3 0.9 70.9 67.5 17.2 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 14.9 15.4 16.5 1.0 75.3 70.4 12.5 14.0 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 14.8 14.9 16.6 0.8 71.1 68.1 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 13.9 14.0 14.6 0.8 72.9 68.0 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 15.9 16.7 18.3 0.8 66.2 65.3 15.3 15.7 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.9 14.3 0.6 65.8 63.8 8.1 8.8 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.1 17.1 1.0 74.4 70.7 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 15.9 16.2 15.2 0.7 69.9 66.6 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 15.4 15.7 15.9 0.7 66.8 65.4 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.7 15.1 0.7 66.5 65.5 12.6 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 14.9 15.0 15.1 0.8 74.3 69.4 13.1 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.6 16.3 0.5 64.7 60.4 15.2 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 17.2 17.9 18.4 1.4 86.2 79.0 15.7 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 16.5 16.8 15.9 0.9 76.3 71.3 14.8 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.5 17.3 0.3 58.0 57.2 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 14.4 14.7 13.9 0.5 65.7 62.0 12.3 13.6 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.8 16.0 17.9 0.6 62.9 62.3 15.0 15.7 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.0 11.9 0.4 60.6 59.7 9.1 9.8 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 15.8 15.9 18.1 0.9 73.3 68.3 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.0 17.6 0.5 62.9 60.5 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 15.5 15.6 17.9 0.7 68.1 65.7 14.4 15.0 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 16.0 16.1 16.2 0.6 67.5 63.2 14.8 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 16.2 16.3 17.4 0.9 73.6 66.7 14.5 15.7 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 14.8 15.0 14.5 0.6 61.7 62.6 14.2 14.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.6 17.8 0.9 70.2 66.1 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 14.6 15.1 17.2 1.0 78.5 72.7 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 13.9 14.2 13.4 0.6 68.8 64.8 12.2 12.7 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 16.2 16.3 18.3 0.7 64.1 63.9 15.2 16.0 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------