***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 47.5 57.4 30.8 103.1 63.4 54.8 22.7 42.5 59.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 40.6 49.0 35.4 102.2 61.0 53.8 22.7 32.9 58.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 55.8 60.7 31.6 99.3 62.3 52.5 28.2 46.6 67.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 35.4 52.3 29.4 91.7 57.9 51.1 36.9 47.0 61.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 46.1 48.9 31.3 92.0 61.6 51.6 19.8 42.2 50.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 26.4 49.7 41.0 99.3 59.7 50.1 22.6 40.3 58.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 40.8 43.4 36.0 102.7 60.8 54.9 20.9 35.3 53.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 75.7 70.0 34.5 84.6 53.9 46.8 54.7 66.7 87.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 44.6 43.9 33.1 94.3 60.1 52.5 31.4 38.0 48.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 52.7 51.7 37.4 87.1 54.9 48.1 37.8 47.2 59.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 46.5 49.2 28.7 87.8 60.0 48.6 26.1 44.2 50.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 47.9 48.9 26.0 84.4 55.1 45.7 31.8 45.0 52.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 28.1 44.1 29.6 88.6 54.3 45.4 27.4 40.8 57.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 57.2 58.9 44.8 100.7 59.5 54.0 40.8 50.6 68.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 15.9 36.7 27.6 93.6 60.7 50.9 14.1 26.4 43.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 47.2 47.6 29.3 90.3 58.1 48.7 35.6 42.5 49.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 44.3 46.2 37.9 102.7 59.6 53.6 25.6 42.0 48.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 53.3 47.7 42.9 83.4 52.4 46.1 38.7 47.4 54.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 48.5 55.1 35.2 104.8 62.4 54.7 23.1 42.6 59.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 60.4 56.3 43.3 83.1 51.2 45.6 41.5 55.2 70.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 44.4 44.4 28.8 94.2 59.5 51.9 23.0 34.9 65.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 51.0 50.5 39.7 104.2 61.9 54.8 36.3 46.3 53.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 48.8 59.6 36.2 108.3 63.6 56.4 23.8 41.3 62.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 58.7 54.9 39.7 91.2 55.8 50.1 39.9 53.8 66.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 47.2 45.5 33.8 94.8 59.9 51.8 26.2 37.7 48.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 24.1 32.9 23.0 87.7 55.6 44.3 23.9 29.7 38.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 52.0 59.5 36.2 101.7 63.1 54.0 24.8 44.5 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 20.1 38.9 28.2 91.2 58.1 49.6 20.8 34.4 40.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 81.6 74.5 45.1 85.4 52.3 46.9 57.5 73.8 82.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 40.9 50.0 34.3 103.5 62.5 55.0 22.6 36.6 52.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------