***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 0.6 9.5 6.7 97.8 72.6 54.0 0.0 1.3 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.8 10.3 8.5 117.7 72.6 56.5 0.4 3.5 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.0 13.4 7.2 105.3 71.1 54.9 0.4 6.3 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.2 27.6 8.7 126.0 76.0 59.2 2.5 12.2 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 8.7 19.6 8.0 106.2 73.7 57.1 0.4 6.0 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.3 11.9 10.6 112.4 68.3 54.1 3.0 8.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.2 12.7 8.2 106.1 71.2 56.9 0.1 4.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 20.8 25.2 9.9 102.1 68.1 51.6 13.5 16.6 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 10.3 17.1 7.8 96.1 69.5 55.6 3.4 8.4 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.3 18.9 9.9 98.9 66.5 53.0 2.9 5.0 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.0 19.0 7.5 102.9 72.7 52.9 2.4 4.7 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.5 21.7 7.8 110.6 72.7 52.5 1.3 9.3 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.2 19.5 8.5 118.9 72.5 53.7 3.1 10.2 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.2 18.8 11.3 121.9 70.9 56.5 1.5 8.9 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.7 14.3 9.2 146.5 79.1 58.2 0.2 2.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.8 14.4 7.8 110.8 72.5 53.2 1.5 6.8 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.0 17.0 9.5 121.3 73.5 56.8 0.2 5.2 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 15.7 17.1 11.9 99.9 64.7 53.3 1.9 13.3 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.7 12.9 8.3 124.2 74.8 56.1 2.0 6.1 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 18.6 20.3 13.6 99.5 64.1 51.1 2.7 14.8 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.8 11.5 6.8 94.5 69.7 55.2 0.4 4.5 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.7 16.2 10.5 134.6 74.3 54.5 4.1 11.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.0 15.4 8.4 129.7 74.9 56.1 1.6 4.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.1 19.5 9.8 104.9 67.4 54.9 1.3 6.8 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.2 13.7 8.8 115.9 73.6 58.4 0.2 5.1 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.8 18.8 6.7 128.2 78.4 55.0 0.4 6.0 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.9 13.6 8.4 107.7 73.1 56.7 0.0 2.7 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.7 17.8 8.5 127.6 74.7 56.5 0.4 8.2 16.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.6 28.2 12.7 99.4 65.4 52.5 8.7 15.0 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.4 14.0 7.9 114.5 73.1 57.0 0.4 4.4 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------