***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 12.7 27.7 9.0 109.5 78.0 56.9 6.1 8.9 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.6 16.8 9.9 104.0 71.5 52.7 3.8 4.9 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.9 25.2 9.0 98.7 73.8 54.4 3.8 14.3 20.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.4 20.7 7.9 89.9 74.5 55.9 5.7 8.7 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.1 20.9 8.1 88.0 72.1 56.3 3.7 8.9 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.9 18.0 13.2 120.1 72.4 55.7 1.9 9.6 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.1 12.0 9.6 106.6 70.0 52.6 2.5 5.1 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 23.3 30.1 8.4 78.8 66.3 54.8 7.2 16.9 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.5 17.9 8.4 86.8 72.5 57.1 6.5 8.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.9 18.3 9.1 80.4 66.9 55.3 8.8 12.4 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 12.0 15.3 7.1 80.7 69.4 55.7 5.5 10.2 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 10.7 14.8 6.6 81.8 68.8 55.7 2.9 7.1 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 10.0 18.6 9.4 104.2 70.1 55.1 1.6 5.2 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.5 22.5 11.8 94.7 72.3 56.5 8.3 14.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 3.6 7.1 6.8 85.7 73.1 58.5 0.5 2.4 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 10.1 21.9 8.3 93.0 71.2 57.2 0.8 6.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.9 15.1 9.2 95.1 67.2 52.0 4.0 8.0 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 11.7 13.4 11.2 82.8 64.5 55.5 8.1 11.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.8 16.4 10.1 105.2 72.7 53.9 5.9 9.9 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 18.2 19.6 11.9 86.0 62.8 54.3 12.3 14.8 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.0 27.6 7.8 91.1 75.0 56.6 4.1 6.6 20.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.2 14.7 9.6 96.6 66.4 51.8 4.1 9.0 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.5 24.0 10.4 105.7 74.0 56.2 5.8 8.5 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 11.8 23.7 10.3 85.5 69.0 55.6 5.2 8.6 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.6 22.1 9.6 97.3 76.1 55.8 3.7 11.1 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 10.9 27.0 8.4 130.7 76.5 55.7 0.8 7.3 20.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.3 30.1 10.3 107.1 77.6 56.6 3.2 8.8 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.4 16.5 7.6 88.8 73.7 57.3 0.8 5.0 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 23.0 24.9 11.9 87.9 64.3 55.4 9.6 19.4 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.4 11.8 9.9 107.8 73.1 54.0 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------