***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 3.8 7.1 7.1 106.4 67.6 53.0 0.0 1.6 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.2 9.8 9.3 107.9 65.1 54.8 1.0 5.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.0 11.7 7.8 103.2 65.3 51.8 2.4 8.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.5 9.7 7.4 105.1 65.0 54.1 0.2 4.7 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 3.6 5.1 8.3 107.6 66.4 55.0 0.5 2.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 3.0 2.8 12.7 109.3 62.9 53.2 0.1 1.2 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.7 11.9 9.9 115.0 67.0 55.4 0.3 4.7 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 10.6 14.0 9.9 93.2 64.0 52.8 1.8 7.3 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 4.0 7.9 8.7 108.4 67.8 56.2 0.2 2.6 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 6.2 9.9 10.6 95.8 63.2 53.1 0.1 4.3 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 3.6 6.1 8.6 107.6 70.1 55.7 0.3 2.8 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 3.2 7.5 7.6 101.0 69.1 54.5 0.0 1.5 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 3.1 5.4 8.2 96.2 64.3 48.1 0.0 0.4 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.3 13.1 11.1 93.5 61.9 53.0 3.6 9.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 2.7 7.3 7.2 113.4 73.3 54.8 0.0 0.8 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 3.6 4.4 8.4 107.2 67.7 53.1 0.5 2.5 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.8 10.5 10.9 111.8 65.6 56.3 0.7 4.3 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 6.5 4.7 11.4 80.3 54.1 47.9 1.0 4.0 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.5 8.3 8.9 106.4 65.6 54.3 1.0 3.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.1 5.5 10.9 78.9 55.3 46.6 0.3 3.3 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 4.5 8.5 7.0 104.2 67.9 52.4 1.0 2.4 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 9.5 11.9 11.3 110.8 63.9 55.7 0.8 7.4 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.5 12.8 8.5 101.1 66.7 52.6 2.6 5.9 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 7.6 11.0 10.5 88.7 59.2 50.9 1.1 4.5 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 3.9 4.4 7.7 90.3 62.0 51.4 0.4 2.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 2.9 4.2 5.8 88.9 65.2 49.1 0.0 1.0 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.4 8.4 99.1 64.9 53.3 2.4 6.2 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.2 9.2 7.8 114.6 70.5 53.8 0.0 1.2 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.6 15.1 11.7 80.8 54.8 48.2 0.7 9.7 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.0 10.6 8.7 108.0 65.7 52.9 0.9 5.3 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------