***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 6.0 10.2 8.0 98.5 66.9 57.8 0.4 3.0 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.0 7.7 82.8 60.1 50.8 0.8 2.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.0 11.3 7.7 91.7 68.3 55.5 1.0 4.1 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.0 5.4 57.6 59.6 48.8 0.3 1.3 6.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 2.9 4.5 6.9 72.4 64.1 54.1 0.6 1.7 4.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 4.2 2.1 4.5 48.8 50.0 45.5 0.2 2.1 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.3 9.5 8.4 85.6 62.9 50.7 0.5 2.4 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.0 6.3 64.6 54.2 45.5 3.7 7.1 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 7.0 8.5 8.2 88.4 69.3 60.0 1.1 5.3 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 10.8 12.3 7.7 74.1 61.0 51.8 1.1 9.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.7 5.5 64.0 61.7 49.7 0.3 3.2 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 0.9 2.0 4.0 48.8 49.6 41.0 0.0 2.0 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 0.7 1.1 3.4 39.6 41.4 35.6 0.4 1.5 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 11.4 14.0 10.5 97.6 67.4 57.6 5.8 9.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 4.5 2.6 4.4 48.9 51.9 41.7 0.3 2.3 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 2.3 1.1 4.8 55.5 52.6 44.8 0.2 0.9 4.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 4.0 5.5 8.3 86.0 64.2 53.9 1.3 3.0 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 7.4 8.2 8.3 71.3 55.8 49.2 1.6 5.8 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.3 5.9 7.8 88.3 62.9 53.5 1.7 3.4 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.5 4.9 7.0 64.0 47.6 42.7 3.7 5.1 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.3 11.2 7.2 89.0 69.8 55.7 0.1 5.4 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 5.0 8.1 8.3 81.5 65.2 56.0 1.4 2.8 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.2 12.3 8.8 102.3 67.2 57.1 1.8 4.3 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 12.4 13.7 9.1 88.4 63.8 54.3 1.8 10.6 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.7 7.8 79.9 63.4 52.0 1.1 6.1 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.5 0.6 2.2 27.1 37.3 29.3 0.4 3.5 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.4 8.0 9.1 94.3 65.3 56.2 1.1 3.9 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.4 3.2 4.2 47.7 51.9 42.0 0.7 3.1 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 9.5 10.8 8.9 73.8 55.4 50.4 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.6 6.8 7.8 86.9 62.5 52.9 1.4 2.8 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------