***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 26.2 25.6 25.7 -2.1 10.6 17.5 26.5 27.4 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 25.8 25.4 25.6 -2.3 10.2 16.4 26.5 27.4 28.2 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 26.1 25.7 25.8 -2.1 10.2 17.6 26.7 27.1 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 19.1 18.3 24.4 -2.1 11.0 17.9 19.6 20.8 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 26.8 26.3 24.5 -1.9 12.4 19.9 27.1 27.9 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 25.8 26.3 23.4 -1.0 31.4 34.9 26.4 27.2 27.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 25.7 25.3 25.5 -2.2 11.4 17.1 26.2 27.2 27.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 14.9 14.6 23.3 -1.4 23.4 28.1 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 26.2 25.8 24.8 -1.9 11.7 19.5 26.6 27.3 27.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 26.1 25.7 23.7 -1.6 17.7 23.9 26.3 27.3 28.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 26.6 26.3 24.4 -1.7 18.9 23.8 26.8 27.5 28.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 25.7 25.8 24.3 -1.5 24.0 26.6 26.1 27.2 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 26.8 26.9 24.0 -1.5 26.2 27.3 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 25.8 25.4 24.4 -1.6 16.2 23.3 26.3 27.2 28.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 26.7 26.2 25.0 -2.2 10.3 16.4 27.4 28.1 29.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 27.3 27.6 24.3 -1.6 21.6 25.4 28.1 28.6 29.5 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 25.5 25.2 25.3 -2.0 12.8 18.6 25.6 26.5 27.5 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 25.3 25.0 23.0 -1.4 20.2 27.3 25.8 26.3 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 25.4 25.1 25.6 -2.2 10.2 17.2 26.0 26.8 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 21.5 21.7 21.6 -0.9 31.9 35.5 21.7 22.8 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 26.2 25.9 25.5 -2.1 10.6 17.9 26.6 27.3 28.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 83 17 0 100 25.7 25.4 25.2 -2.0 11.5 18.7 26.3 27.0 27.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 26.0 25.3 25.6 -2.0 11.6 19.2 26.2 27.2 27.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 25.6 25.2 24.4 -1.6 16.0 23.2 26.2 26.8 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 26.2 25.7 24.5 -2.0 10.4 18.5 26.7 27.5 28.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 26.5 26.1 24.1 -1.6 22.4 26.4 27.0 27.9 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 26.1 25.5 25.1 -1.9 11.8 19.2 26.4 27.4 27.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 26.8 26.4 24.8 -2.1 13.3 18.4 27.5 28.2 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 20.9 20.4 22.3 -1.2 26.0 31.3 20.9 22.0 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 25.5 25.1 25.7 -2.3 9.8 16.1 26.4 27.1 28.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------