***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 21.8 21.4 24.3 -2.5 20.7 25.3 22.3 24.9 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 21.9 20.9 24.3 -2.4 13.9 25.1 22.4 25.0 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 22.1 22.2 24.4 -2.4 20.1 26.1 22.6 24.8 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 15.2 14.7 22.9 -2.7 16.7 23.8 15.7 17.4 19.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 22.6 22.1 23.0 -2.4 21.2 26.7 23.7 25.0 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 22.2 22.1 21.7 -1.9 23.1 32.3 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 21.6 20.7 24.2 -2.4 15.2 25.4 22.1 24.7 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 11.5 11.3 21.9 -1.9 26.9 31.4 12.0 13.2 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 22.2 22.1 23.2 -2.3 22.4 27.5 22.5 24.8 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 22.4 22.0 22.2 -2.1 24.9 29.8 22.6 24.4 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 22.3 22.0 22.8 -2.2 24.8 28.9 23.5 24.4 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 22.1 21.8 22.8 -2.1 24.8 30.3 22.8 24.0 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 23.6 22.7 22.4 -2.2 21.0 29.9 24.1 25.3 26.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 21.8 22.1 23.0 -1.9 24.7 30.3 22.7 25.0 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 23.1 22.3 23.3 -2.8 13.0 21.6 23.8 25.3 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 23.7 23.0 22.7 -2.3 20.6 28.4 24.6 25.3 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 21.5 21.3 24.1 -2.2 17.8 26.6 22.0 24.1 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 21.4 21.3 21.6 -1.8 27.2 31.9 21.8 24.1 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 21.9 21.2 24.4 -2.4 15.8 25.7 22.0 24.8 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 18.0 18.0 20.0 -1.6 30.4 34.5 18.2 19.9 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 22.1 21.8 23.9 -2.5 21.3 26.2 22.9 24.4 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 83 17 0 100 22.0 21.7 24.1 -2.1 19.0 26.9 22.3 24.5 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 21.7 21.5 24.3 -2.2 20.4 27.3 22.7 24.8 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 21.6 21.6 23.0 -2.0 24.3 30.1 22.3 24.3 25.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 22.6 22.1 23.0 -2.5 19.1 25.3 22.9 25.2 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 23.4 22.5 22.5 -2.3 20.6 29.2 23.7 25.3 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 21.9 21.9 23.6 -2.4 21.0 26.1 22.8 24.9 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 23.0 22.4 23.2 -2.7 14.9 23.2 23.8 25.5 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 16.8 17.2 20.8 -1.7 29.2 33.3 17.5 19.2 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 21.8 21.1 24.4 -2.5 15.2 24.9 21.7 24.9 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------