***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 24.1 25.4 25.5 -2.1 27.1 30.7 25.9 26.7 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 24.2 25.1 25.5 -2.0 30.5 32.0 25.5 26.9 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 24.5 24.4 25.5 -2.1 26.4 31.2 25.7 26.7 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 18.1 17.5 23.9 -2.3 19.5 28.1 19.3 20.1 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 25.2 24.5 24.0 -2.1 22.0 30.6 26.5 27.5 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 24.5 24.8 22.6 -1.5 31.4 35.6 25.1 27.1 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 24.0 24.9 25.5 -1.9 32.2 32.6 25.0 26.5 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 13.8 14.5 22.7 -1.7 28.5 34.2 15.3 16.3 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 24.5 24.4 24.2 -2.1 22.8 31.3 25.5 27.0 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 24.5 24.8 23.2 -1.8 26.9 33.1 25.8 27.4 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 24.6 24.6 23.7 -1.9 25.0 32.6 26.4 27.3 28.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 24.5 24.4 23.7 -1.9 26.6 32.9 25.0 27.3 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 25.7 25.2 23.2 -1.9 26.6 32.6 26.2 28.2 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 24.1 25.2 24.1 -1.6 32.8 35.7 25.2 26.8 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 25.9 25.2 24.3 -2.4 18.4 26.0 26.4 27.7 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 26.0 25.5 23.6 -2.0 25.3 31.8 27.4 28.8 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 23.7 24.7 25.4 -1.7 36.2 35.2 24.3 26.1 26.7 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 23.3 24.9 22.6 -1.6 32.0 35.3 25.0 26.1 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 24.1 24.8 25.6 -2.0 29.5 32.3 25.5 26.5 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 19.5 21.0 20.9 -1.4 33.5 36.9 20.9 22.7 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 24.3 23.7 25.0 -2.2 22.4 30.3 25.6 27.0 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 24.1 25.0 25.3 -1.7 36.5 35.0 24.9 26.3 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 24.0 25.1 25.4 -1.9 30.6 33.5 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 23.7 24.9 24.0 -1.7 30.5 34.5 25.4 26.5 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 24.7 24.3 24.1 -2.1 24.2 30.3 26.0 26.8 28.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 25.3 24.8 23.3 -2.0 25.0 31.0 26.3 27.9 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 24.1 25.0 24.7 -2.0 28.4 31.6 25.4 26.7 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 26.0 25.3 24.2 -2.4 18.6 27.3 26.0 27.9 28.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 18.8 20.5 21.7 -1.4 34.4 36.8 20.5 21.0 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 24.1 25.0 25.6 -2.1 29.2 31.0 25.8 26.6 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------