***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 27.2 27.2 26.0 -2.2 21.6 24.4 28.5 29.3 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 26.8 26.7 25.7 -2.5 21.9 23.2 28.0 28.8 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 26.7 27.1 26.1 -2.1 23.5 26.1 27.4 29.1 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 19.8 19.1 24.8 -2.2 20.8 25.4 21.3 22.7 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 27.3 27.3 25.0 -1.8 25.1 30.0 28.4 30.2 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 27.0 28.2 23.9 -0.8 38.5 41.2 26.9 29.5 30.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 26.2 26.2 25.7 -2.4 20.9 23.4 27.4 28.7 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 16.0 15.8 23.9 -1.2 33.5 38.3 15.7 18.4 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 26.9 27.2 25.2 -1.8 25.9 31.1 27.8 29.5 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 27.3 26.9 24.2 -1.4 29.5 35.6 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 27.5 27.1 24.8 -1.5 28.9 34.4 28.1 29.7 30.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 27.2 26.2 24.8 -1.3 31.6 36.4 26.3 29.3 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 28.3 27.8 24.4 -1.3 32.0 35.9 28.1 30.5 31.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 26.9 27.1 24.8 -1.5 30.3 34.0 27.3 29.0 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 26.9 26.4 25.1 -2.4 17.9 21.6 28.1 29.8 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 28.7 27.8 24.7 -1.5 28.7 34.3 28.9 31.4 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 26.0 26.2 25.5 -2.3 22.8 25.4 26.9 28.1 29.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 28.7 26.2 23.6 -1.1 33.5 38.8 26.1 28.2 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 26.1 26.2 25.9 -2.4 23.3 24.8 27.5 28.7 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 25.2 23.0 22.1 -0.8 38.5 42.5 22.1 24.7 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 26.9 26.8 25.7 -2.0 24.0 27.6 27.4 29.3 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 26.7 26.8 25.5 -2.2 24.6 26.8 27.5 28.9 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 26.6 27.2 25.8 -2.1 25.7 27.9 27.3 28.8 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 26.8 26.6 24.8 -1.5 29.6 34.4 26.8 28.7 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 27.2 26.6 24.8 -2.1 22.9 25.7 27.7 29.6 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 28.2 27.4 24.6 -1.4 30.7 35.0 27.7 30.3 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 26.3 26.5 25.3 -2.1 22.2 25.4 27.7 28.7 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 27.4 26.5 25.1 -2.1 21.5 25.8 29.1 30.4 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 24.4 22.1 22.8 -0.9 36.7 41.4 21.6 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 26.2 26.2 25.9 -2.5 21.1 23.1 27.5 28.6 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------