***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 28.4 28.1 27.2 -1.5 32.1 31.4 28.1 29.7 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 27.4 27.3 26.6 -2.1 22.1 24.0 28.2 29.3 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 28.1 27.8 27.1 -1.8 27.8 28.0 28.0 29.0 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 23.0 21.0 25.7 -1.2 38.1 34.3 20.6 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 28.8 28.4 26.2 -1.3 32.9 33.1 28.4 30.2 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.1 25.4 0.3 51.3 51.5 26.9 28.9 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 27.2 27.6 26.7 -1.9 24.3 26.5 28.0 28.7 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.1 16.7 24.8 -0.8 38.3 39.5 16.4 17.4 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 28.0 27.5 26.7 -1.5 30.0 30.5 27.6 29.1 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 27.5 27.4 25.2 -1.2 33.2 34.1 27.4 28.7 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 28.0 27.8 26.0 -1.2 34.2 34.9 27.7 29.7 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.2 25.8 -0.9 38.0 37.9 27.2 28.8 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 30.8 29.2 26.0 -0.6 40.0 40.5 28.0 30.2 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 27.5 27.5 25.7 -1.5 28.1 28.7 27.6 28.8 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 30.3 28.8 27.4 -1.1 35.3 34.0 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 31.5 29.6 26.3 -0.8 39.3 39.1 28.7 30.9 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 26.4 25.9 26.2 -2.0 19.6 23.1 27.6 28.6 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 26.6 27.1 24.3 -1.0 35.1 36.3 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 27.3 27.0 26.7 -2.1 22.1 24.0 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 24.6 24.2 23.5 0.1 52.4 50.8 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 27.9 27.8 27.3 -1.6 30.6 30.4 27.9 29.6 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 27.0 26.8 26.1 -2.2 19.2 21.6 28.2 28.9 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 27.5 27.4 26.7 -1.9 23.3 25.3 27.6 28.9 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 27.1 27.0 25.7 -1.4 30.0 31.0 27.2 28.6 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 28.5 28.2 26.3 -1.3 33.5 34.0 28.2 29.7 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 30.2 28.9 25.8 -0.5 43.1 41.7 27.8 29.5 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.6 28.2 26.8 -1.3 35.8 34.3 28.1 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 30.3 28.8 26.6 -1.1 36.7 34.6 28.4 29.6 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 21.8 22.9 23.9 -0.6 39.8 41.6 22.4 23.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 27.4 27.2 26.9 -2.0 24.4 25.6 27.7 29.2 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------