***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 13.3 12.9 15.9 -1.2 14.5 22.2 14.2 14.6 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 12.9 12.5 15.8 -1.2 11.9 20.6 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 85 15 0 100 15.4 15.3 15.7 -1.2 13.5 20.7 16.1 16.5 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 11.2 10.8 13.9 -1.1 15.7 22.3 11.3 12.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 11.9 11.3 13.8 -1.1 14.3 22.2 12.7 12.9 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 11.6 11.7 12.9 -0.5 33.2 37.3 11.7 12.1 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 13.4 13.1 15.9 -1.2 13.9 20.9 14.2 14.5 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.1 7.0 12.3 -0.8 24.8 29.8 7.1 7.7 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 12.9 12.7 14.1 -1.1 14.6 22.3 13.8 14.2 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 13.3 13.1 12.7 -0.9 19.4 26.6 13.6 14.0 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 12.7 12.5 13.5 -1.0 17.5 25.3 13.3 13.6 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 11.3 11.2 13.1 -0.9 21.7 26.4 11.4 12.0 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 12.2 12.0 12.8 -0.9 20.2 26.2 12.5 13.0 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 13.8 13.6 14.1 -0.9 18.6 25.0 14.3 14.9 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 13.9 13.6 14.7 -1.3 15.6 20.3 14.6 15.5 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 13.8 13.6 13.4 -0.9 20.7 26.5 14.1 14.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 14.0 13.8 15.6 -0.9 18.7 26.0 14.3 15.0 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 11.6 11.6 11.9 -0.8 22.7 28.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 13.5 13.2 15.7 -1.2 12.3 20.7 14.3 14.5 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.1 8.0 10.7 -0.6 28.8 34.4 8.1 8.3 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 13.0 12.6 15.1 -1.2 13.3 20.5 13.4 13.8 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 13.0 12.8 15.5 -1.0 14.2 22.9 13.4 13.8 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 13.1 12.8 15.5 -1.1 13.4 21.2 13.4 13.8 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 13.4 13.3 13.9 -0.9 19.6 25.4 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 13.2 12.9 14.4 -1.1 13.5 22.2 13.7 14.2 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 12.7 12.5 12.9 -0.8 23.4 27.9 12.6 13.4 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 13.5 13.1 15.2 -1.1 15.0 23.9 14.0 14.3 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 11.9 11.7 14.4 -1.2 17.4 22.2 12.5 12.8 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 11.0 11.0 11.5 -0.8 21.2 29.1 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 13.5 13.1 15.9 -1.3 11.6 19.6 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------