***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 11.1 10.6 14.5 -1.6 21.7 29.0 11.8 12.6 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 10.9 10.3 14.5 -1.5 20.4 28.8 11.5 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 12.7 12.3 14.3 -1.5 22.1 28.9 13.5 14.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 7.4 6.8 12.3 -1.8 16.8 25.0 8.2 9.2 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 9.7 9.6 12.2 -1.6 19.4 27.7 10.7 11.6 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 9.5 9.8 11.1 -1.2 26.5 32.2 10.1 10.5 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 11.3 10.7 14.5 -1.5 19.3 29.1 12.4 12.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 4.1 4.4 10.7 -1.3 23.5 31.6 4.8 5.6 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 11.0 10.6 12.4 -1.5 19.4 29.2 11.9 12.7 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 10.9 11.2 11.0 -1.4 22.6 31.1 12.0 12.3 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 11.0 10.9 12.0 -1.4 22.1 29.9 11.2 12.2 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 9.2 9.3 11.6 -1.5 20.9 29.0 10.1 10.6 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 10.4 10.2 11.2 -1.4 18.4 28.9 10.6 11.6 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 11.6 11.7 12.6 -1.3 26.3 32.6 12.5 13.2 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 11.9 11.5 12.9 -1.9 15.2 23.8 12.7 13.1 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 11.5 11.2 11.8 -1.5 19.2 28.8 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 11.3 11.7 14.3 -1.2 25.1 33.2 12.2 13.0 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 9.8 10.3 10.4 -1.3 24.3 32.4 10.6 11.4 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 10.8 10.5 14.4 -1.5 21.6 29.4 12.1 12.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 5.8 5.8 9.3 -1.2 25.4 33.7 6.5 7.0 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 10.6 10.4 13.5 -1.6 19.3 28.1 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 10.6 10.3 14.2 -1.2 22.3 32.2 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 10.5 9.9 14.1 -1.4 22.3 30.2 11.6 12.5 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 11.2 11.4 12.4 -1.3 25.5 31.9 12.0 12.6 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 10.8 10.8 12.9 -1.6 18.9 28.1 11.3 12.4 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 10.0 9.9 11.4 -1.6 18.5 27.5 10.8 11.5 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 10.6 10.4 13.7 -1.5 21.6 29.7 11.0 12.0 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 9.9 9.6 12.7 -1.8 15.8 24.5 10.6 10.9 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 8.1 8.0 10.0 -1.3 24.6 32.4 8.6 9.5 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 11.0 10.4 14.6 -1.6 19.1 27.9 12.1 12.5 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------