***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 12.9 13.0 15.5 -1.2 30.0 33.7 13.1 14.1 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 12.5 12.9 15.6 -1.1 32.3 34.4 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 14.8 14.7 15.4 -1.2 31.0 33.3 15.1 15.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 10.1 10.4 13.4 -1.3 28.7 30.8 10.5 11.3 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 11.4 12.1 13.3 -1.1 32.1 33.7 12.1 12.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 11.3 11.7 12.3 -0.7 38.3 39.4 11.6 12.1 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 13.0 13.2 15.7 -1.1 33.8 34.9 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 6.0 6.4 11.8 -1.0 33.9 35.2 6.4 7.4 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 12.9 12.9 13.5 -1.1 32.4 34.0 12.9 14.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 12.7 13.1 12.2 -0.9 34.4 35.2 13.1 13.5 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 12.4 12.7 13.1 -0.9 34.1 35.8 12.6 13.2 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 10.7 11.2 12.7 -1.0 31.0 33.9 11.4 11.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 11.9 12.4 12.3 -0.9 33.6 35.7 12.4 12.9 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 13.5 13.5 13.7 -0.9 35.7 35.9 13.3 14.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 14.3 13.9 14.0 -1.4 25.1 28.2 14.4 15.6 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 13.3 13.6 12.9 -1.0 31.5 35.4 13.7 14.3 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 13.6 13.5 15.5 -0.7 40.0 39.7 13.4 14.6 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 11.2 11.8 11.5 -0.9 34.2 35.6 11.8 12.3 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 13.0 12.9 15.5 -1.1 32.3 34.6 12.9 14.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 7.8 7.7 10.4 -0.8 33.0 37.2 7.7 8.7 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 12.4 12.7 14.6 -1.2 29.4 32.6 13.2 13.4 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 12.3 12.9 15.3 -0.8 37.2 38.2 12.8 13.3 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 12.6 12.9 15.2 -1.0 32.2 34.5 12.9 13.5 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 13.1 13.3 13.5 -0.9 34.8 35.1 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 12.6 13.1 14.0 -1.1 30.1 34.0 13.2 13.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 12.3 12.4 12.4 -1.1 30.7 33.6 12.5 13.0 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 12.4 12.8 14.8 -1.0 31.9 35.4 12.8 13.9 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 11.5 12.0 13.7 -1.4 27.3 29.6 12.3 13.1 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 10.2 10.5 11.2 -0.8 35.5 36.2 10.5 11.5 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 12.9 13.0 15.7 -1.2 30.0 33.2 13.0 13.9 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------