***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 14.5 13.9 15.8 -1.8 14.8 19.8 14.8 15.5 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 86 14 0 100 13.3 13.0 15.8 -1.8 13.6 19.2 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 15.6 15.0 15.6 -1.8 12.6 18.8 17.0 17.7 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 11.3 11.0 13.8 -1.7 17.3 19.5 12.3 12.7 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 11.8 11.5 13.7 -1.6 17.7 21.6 12.8 13.4 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 11.8 12.3 12.9 -1.0 28.1 31.2 12.3 13.1 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 13.8 13.5 15.8 -1.8 15.3 19.5 14.7 15.3 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 7.3 7.1 12.4 -1.3 23.7 27.1 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 13.4 12.8 13.9 -1.6 16.8 22.1 14.0 14.8 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 13.6 13.3 12.6 -1.5 18.8 24.2 13.8 14.6 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 13.0 12.5 13.6 -1.3 20.8 25.3 13.4 14.2 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 11.2 10.9 13.2 -1.3 22.6 25.2 11.7 12.8 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 12.2 12.2 12.9 -1.2 23.1 26.8 12.8 13.6 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 14.1 13.8 14.0 -1.6 17.2 21.9 14.8 15.2 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 14.1 13.8 14.4 -1.8 18.5 19.6 14.6 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 13.9 13.3 13.5 -1.3 22.5 26.5 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 14.3 14.4 15.6 -1.5 19.4 24.2 15.1 15.6 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 11.8 11.5 11.9 -1.4 18.1 23.6 12.1 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 89 11 0 100 13.6 13.2 15.7 -1.8 14.3 19.2 14.6 15.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 8.1 8.4 10.9 -1.1 26.8 30.7 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 13.0 12.6 14.9 -1.8 14.3 19.7 13.6 14.5 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 13.1 12.9 15.5 -1.5 20.0 23.2 14.1 14.5 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 90 10 0 100 13.4 13.3 15.4 -1.8 15.0 18.9 13.8 14.3 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 13.7 13.4 13.8 -1.6 16.1 21.6 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 13.3 12.9 14.2 -1.7 15.7 19.3 14.1 14.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 12.9 13.3 13.2 -1.1 27.4 30.6 13.4 13.8 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 13.9 13.4 15.0 -1.6 16.3 20.4 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 12.2 11.8 14.3 -1.6 20.0 21.5 12.5 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 11.2 10.8 11.4 -1.4 17.1 23.7 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 14.0 13.4 15.9 -1.9 13.0 18.3 14.6 15.4 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------