***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 48.5 63.6 42.5 119.7 67.1 58.4 22.7 42.5 62.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 25.8 41.7 32.5 92.5 54.7 49.0 22.8 35.3 59.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 56.2 81.5 42.9 119.2 69.0 58.6 29.5 47.3 68.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 67.9 70.0 44.1 132.6 72.3 64.8 40.4 51.0 62.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 45.9 58.1 44.0 134.4 71.1 62.5 22.4 43.0 54.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 46.4 62.2 46.8 123.9 69.0 59.5 26.4 40.3 54.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 26.2 36.0 31.5 89.1 52.4 47.4 23.9 35.3 53.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 92.0 102.5 53.5 136.9 73.7 66.7 54.4 69.0 90.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 43.3 66.3 51.1 145.0 74.8 65.6 28.2 39.3 59.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 51.5 70.7 56.1 136.3 72.8 65.0 38.7 46.7 63.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 48.3 52.9 40.5 128.6 70.0 61.1 25.4 47.2 51.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 52.0 57.3 41.7 137.7 72.9 66.1 34.2 43.7 53.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 44.6 57.1 40.2 128.1 71.5 62.6 26.8 40.8 52.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 59.9 70.7 57.6 117.9 66.6 59.9 41.3 55.3 70.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 34.8 53.7 31.4 117.9 70.8 58.0 15.5 26.5 45.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 45.6 58.7 40.4 130.8 73.0 63.1 36.5 42.6 49.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 29.2 41.9 30.6 82.6 49.3 44.7 25.6 42.0 51.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 61.9 57.2 64.7 133.3 72.6 65.9 39.3 45.0 54.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 28.1 51.2 36.4 103.3 60.1 53.2 22.8 42.5 62.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 69.8 73.7 62.6 128.5 69.9 64.7 45.9 55.1 70.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 44.8 71.8 46.9 136.7 73.4 64.2 25.3 39.3 65.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 52.3 52.3 36.8 97.1 59.5 50.6 35.3 47.3 56.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 50.3 56.6 42.1 115.7 64.4 57.8 23.8 41.9 58.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 59.0 73.0 55.9 127.2 71.3 63.0 41.8 54.9 66.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 47.6 57.1 45.7 122.5 69.9 60.4 26.2 40.8 48.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 35.4 42.8 33.3 120.6 69.9 58.9 26.6 33.1 42.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 54.9 61.3 44.1 115.5 67.3 57.6 23.4 46.6 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 47.2 49.3 40.3 132.3 73.7 62.8 20.8 33.9 43.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 90.8 94.7 66.8 132.0 71.5 66.0 58.7 67.8 82.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 28.2 45.5 34.9 99.4 58.8 51.9 24.3 39.0 52.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------