***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.8 7.0 92.2 67.9 50.0 0.0 8.0 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.6 11.9 6.6 93.2 67.6 49.4 1.8 5.4 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.9 13.6 7.6 96.0 65.9 48.1 3.5 9.3 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.4 20.9 6.8 86.5 66.7 47.1 4.4 10.0 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.3 19.4 7.0 92.4 68.1 47.9 2.1 6.9 16.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.2 12.5 9.2 98.8 66.5 45.8 3.0 7.3 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.9 14.3 6.0 82.6 65.5 48.5 3.6 6.6 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.9 22.2 7.9 86.8 62.1 48.4 11.8 16.4 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.3 17.2 7.9 96.4 66.4 48.3 3.2 8.9 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.0 19.0 8.8 89.8 63.3 47.5 3.8 7.7 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.3 14.0 6.1 87.1 65.7 46.2 2.4 9.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 14.6 16.5 6.4 91.5 65.2 49.2 0.1 6.4 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.5 24.3 8.2 108.1 68.6 50.2 3.2 9.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.7 13.8 10.7 94.6 60.1 47.1 1.0 7.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.2 7.3 5.6 90.3 65.9 45.9 1.0 2.5 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.4 22.8 7.2 102.4 69.1 49.0 2.0 7.3 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.0 15.3 6.4 82.9 64.8 48.1 2.3 6.1 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.8 16.0 10.7 92.4 61.9 47.7 2.3 13.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.5 13.1 7.3 100.3 68.5 49.5 3.0 7.2 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 16.3 11.8 101.7 63.3 50.3 1.5 13.4 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.2 13.3 7.7 100.7 67.7 49.4 2.8 6.4 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.3 17.0 8.5 104.8 68.6 50.2 6.4 10.7 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.1 12.6 7.6 97.4 66.1 49.0 3.0 5.5 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.5 13.6 9.4 92.9 61.1 46.7 1.5 6.8 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.9 15.8 7.8 96.2 69.3 49.5 1.5 10.1 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.1 19.8 7.0 106.7 70.8 50.2 0.7 4.8 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.4 16.2 7.4 92.2 68.6 48.8 0.7 7.5 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.8 17.1 6.6 91.9 65.4 47.8 1.8 8.2 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.7 22.7 11.3 94.0 61.3 47.8 4.6 16.3 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.8 11.5 6.7 91.1 67.3 49.4 3.4 8.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------