***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.5 16.6 10.8 139.8 74.3 52.3 2.4 5.9 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.9 17.2 8.3 106.1 68.4 51.2 2.1 4.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.2 22.2 11.3 140.9 74.9 55.6 2.1 6.8 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.6 28.0 11.5 142.3 79.9 57.7 1.9 6.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.8 26.7 13.3 172.7 83.5 59.4 2.6 7.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 15.2 18.8 13.2 145.3 77.6 60.3 0.8 9.2 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.2 11.0 7.5 92.8 65.1 48.9 2.3 5.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.1 46.5 15.1 165.3 80.1 61.4 5.5 14.5 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.6 26.1 13.9 169.5 79.6 58.5 6.5 10.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.1 31.2 15.6 161.8 78.5 59.6 7.4 11.1 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.5 20.8 12.5 173.3 82.5 58.4 4.4 7.2 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 16.5 25.7 12.3 168.8 80.9 61.8 2.4 7.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 22.8 34.2 12.8 159.8 80.8 63.7 1.0 5.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.1 27.0 15.3 128.7 70.4 55.6 8.6 14.2 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.4 10.8 8.4 138.8 80.6 56.2 0.3 1.4 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 13.7 32.6 12.5 167.2 81.9 62.0 1.0 6.4 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.9 15.4 7.6 84.5 64.0 47.5 4.0 10.1 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.9 17.1 148.7 75.5 58.2 5.5 8.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.1 19.8 9.3 119.5 71.6 52.2 4.0 6.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 19.0 32.1 18.4 158.5 78.2 59.1 11.8 14.7 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.2 30.8 12.5 158.4 78.1 56.7 3.4 8.1 19.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.6 20.5 9.1 103.2 70.2 49.6 4.1 10.1 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.7 24.4 10.5 128.5 72.0 54.0 3.8 8.8 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.9 22.6 14.3 137.6 74.1 56.3 6.7 8.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.6 19.9 11.7 140.5 73.8 54.4 3.5 6.8 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 17.7 27.7 10.4 168.7 83.1 62.9 0.5 5.6 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.5 24.8 10.9 130.4 71.8 52.2 2.6 7.4 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.6 17.1 10.8 148.1 80.3 59.0 1.1 4.1 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.1 31.7 18.0 148.7 75.8 58.5 8.8 15.1 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.7 10.2 9.2 120.4 72.2 53.1 1.8 3.4 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------