***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.3 13.3 14.4 147.9 77.0 61.4 0.1 1.8 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 7.2 9.7 10.5 105.8 68.1 58.0 1.2 5.6 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 13.7 18.3 15.4 149.7 78.7 66.2 1.6 7.7 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 10.1 18.0 15.2 170.2 79.9 67.0 0.2 2.7 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 6.3 9.6 15.6 172.0 82.1 68.8 0.0 0.6 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 6.3 9.7 15.6 147.8 77.3 67.2 0.0 0.7 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.2 13.8 10.3 109.3 68.6 57.2 0.9 5.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 15.7 22.2 16.0 152.0 79.1 68.8 1.3 3.9 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 9.4 15.7 17.9 183.7 82.4 71.3 0.0 0.8 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 10.1 15.6 17.9 167.3 80.8 69.2 0.0 1.9 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 5.1 6.9 12.9 139.0 77.3 62.0 0.1 0.9 3.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 6.3 8.6 12.9 155.1 79.7 68.9 0.0 1.2 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 5.7 11.7 13.4 158.1 81.2 68.5 0.0 0.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 17.1 20.1 19.1 150.7 77.4 69.2 3.6 8.3 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 2.1 15.1 12.7 157.5 81.6 61.4 0.0 0.7 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 4.8 11.3 13.6 151.9 80.3 64.8 0.0 0.9 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.3 10.4 10.3 104.6 69.2 59.3 0.4 4.4 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 17.0 23.6 21.4 171.0 82.4 71.5 0.3 4.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.6 12.4 11.8 117.6 70.3 60.4 1.0 2.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 16.8 23.4 19.4 150.2 77.1 67.8 0.3 2.3 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 9.0 13.0 16.2 169.1 79.1 67.9 0.4 1.2 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.3 15.8 12.1 113.8 70.1 62.1 0.5 8.2 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 14.4 19.6 14.6 142.5 76.4 66.1 1.6 4.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 18.4 25.8 19.9 166.8 81.6 71.1 1.2 5.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 5.9 8.9 17.7 165.8 78.4 65.0 0.0 1.8 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 1.2 4.4 10.4 119.7 75.1 64.3 0.0 0.2 2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.0 21.2 16.1 146.8 75.3 61.9 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 7.2 14.7 14.2 169.1 81.8 64.7 0.0 0.8 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 19.7 26.0 23.6 173.8 82.2 73.1 0.9 8.6 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.6 11.9 11.3 115.8 70.1 58.5 0.4 5.2 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------