***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.5 11.5 10.3 98.5 68.9 58.3 1.0 2.8 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.1 7.1 69.3 57.2 49.5 0.6 2.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.3 13.2 8.6 88.1 66.1 57.5 0.9 3.9 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 12.7 15.4 10.5 126.9 74.0 68.2 0.8 4.2 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 4.1 11.1 8.1 96.4 69.8 64.2 0.8 2.6 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 9.6 14.0 8.8 99.8 66.3 61.2 1.9 6.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.4 8.3 7.6 72.8 57.8 48.8 0.8 2.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 13.7 17.6 14.4 142.5 73.6 69.4 4.4 7.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 46 54 100 12.0 14.4 11.3 125.0 73.7 67.5 0.8 6.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 47 53 100 16.3 17.8 13.9 124.7 71.6 66.5 2.4 10.0 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 5.6 10.2 9.1 111.0 70.4 63.1 0.8 4.2 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 9.1 11.6 10.1 132.9 74.5 67.8 0.3 3.1 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 4.9 6.1 5.8 79.3 68.5 58.1 0.9 4.3 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.2 14.2 12.5 96.7 61.3 58.0 5.4 11.9 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 3.8 7.7 4.7 75.8 67.9 58.2 0.6 2.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 3.4 6.4 7.0 95.6 69.4 62.8 0.5 2.7 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 4.7 5.1 6.2 59.6 54.6 46.7 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 11.9 12.3 15.5 120.4 70.6 64.2 2.0 7.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.3 4.7 8.1 79.5 60.9 53.1 1.9 3.2 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 6.2 9.5 13.0 106.1 66.4 61.9 4.0 4.8 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 14.4 19.0 10.6 114.6 72.9 64.6 0.9 7.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 5.8 6.1 7.1 68.8 57.7 50.9 1.6 4.1 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.2 12.7 9.5 92.6 64.4 57.8 1.0 4.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.7 12.3 106.5 66.2 61.4 3.8 10.7 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 10.5 12.3 8.5 83.3 67.8 58.9 2.9 8.4 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 5.9 10.1 5.5 89.2 68.5 60.3 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.9 10.2 9.7 89.4 66.8 57.2 1.5 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 7.8 7.3 8.7 113.4 72.8 65.2 1.2 3.6 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 10.6 13.7 13.8 106.8 65.8 60.7 4.6 8.4 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.2 4.4 7.7 74.5 59.0 51.8 1.4 3.2 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------