***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.4 28.0 0.9 59.4 58.9 23.6 24.7 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.7 28.0 1.0 60.5 59.0 23.1 25.9 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 26.2 25.9 28.2 0.8 57.4 57.6 23.1 25.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 16.1 18.9 26.1 1.0 64.7 60.1 16.8 17.7 18.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.6 25.9 0.3 52.9 53.9 23.9 25.4 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 22.8 24.2 23.4 0.2 53.3 53.3 23.1 23.9 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 26.8 26.6 28.3 1.4 67.1 62.8 22.6 25.6 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.3 23.9 -0.3 44.9 48.0 12.5 13.6 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.3 26.1 0.4 54.2 54.8 23.2 25.2 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 25.2 24.6 24.8 0.2 51.8 53.2 23.3 24.5 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.8 24.8 25.5 -0.2 47.3 49.8 23.5 25.1 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 24.9 23.9 25.1 -0.6 43.3 46.2 23.5 24.0 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.2 24.3 -0.4 45.8 47.5 24.4 25.3 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 26.1 25.9 25.9 0.7 56.7 57.3 23.1 25.9 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 27.3 26.4 27.3 1.1 65.4 61.2 24.6 25.6 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 26.7 25.9 25.2 0.0 49.5 51.1 24.7 25.9 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 26.8 25.9 27.8 1.2 63.8 61.2 22.2 25.1 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 24.9 24.9 24.2 0.4 54.0 55.0 22.3 24.6 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.1 28.0 0.7 57.1 57.0 22.5 25.5 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.0 19.4 21.5 -0.1 46.4 49.6 18.8 19.4 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.5 27.1 0.6 56.1 56.4 23.2 25.2 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.2 26.1 27.6 1.0 60.1 59.5 22.4 25.6 26.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.0 28.0 0.6 55.5 56.3 23.0 25.5 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 25.5 25.4 26.0 0.6 56.0 56.9 22.6 25.2 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 23.4 25.8 26.2 0.8 59.7 58.4 24.1 25.0 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 23.7 24.7 24.8 -0.6 42.0 46.1 24.5 25.0 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 25.8 26.0 27.1 1.0 61.5 59.6 23.1 25.3 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 27.2 26.8 26.4 1.0 63.4 59.8 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.1 19.7 23.1 0.2 50.9 53.1 17.4 19.7 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.3 28.2 1.0 60.8 59.6 22.5 25.5 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------