***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 25.7 26.5 27.5 -0.9 39.2 41.5 26.3 27.0 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 25.3 25.6 27.2 -1.0 35.4 39.9 25.4 26.8 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 25.2 26.1 27.6 -1.1 33.5 39.4 26.1 26.9 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 20.9 20.1 25.8 -0.5 41.7 45.1 19.6 20.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 26.5 26.7 25.4 -1.5 30.3 35.6 27.0 27.8 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 25.6 26.4 23.3 -1.1 35.8 38.8 26.1 26.7 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 25.3 26.0 27.6 -0.5 43.8 44.7 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 15.1 15.0 23.4 -2.1 25.5 30.3 15.8 16.5 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 25.6 26.4 25.5 -1.5 30.4 36.0 26.5 27.1 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 25.6 26.3 24.2 -1.6 29.7 34.9 26.6 27.2 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 26.0 26.0 25.0 -1.9 26.7 31.5 26.7 27.8 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 25.2 24.8 24.7 -2.3 23.4 28.4 26.4 27.4 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 26.6 26.6 24.0 -2.0 24.2 30.1 26.8 28.0 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 25.2 25.3 25.1 -1.3 32.2 37.8 25.4 26.9 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 28.7 28.3 27.3 -0.2 48.8 49.4 27.0 28.4 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 27.3 27.3 24.9 -1.6 28.6 33.8 27.4 29.1 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 24.7 25.2 27.0 -0.8 40.1 42.1 24.9 26.1 26.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 24.6 25.5 23.5 -1.5 31.2 36.3 25.6 26.5 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 24.9 25.5 27.2 -1.3 31.6 37.5 25.5 26.5 27.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 20.4 21.2 21.0 -1.8 27.1 32.3 21.7 22.8 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 25.8 26.5 26.6 -1.3 33.6 38.1 26.4 27.1 28.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 25.3 25.4 26.7 -1.0 34.7 40.1 25.3 26.6 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 25.4 25.2 27.2 -1.4 30.5 36.7 25.3 27.2 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 24.8 25.6 25.3 -1.3 32.0 38.1 25.7 26.6 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 25.8 26.8 25.7 -0.9 38.1 41.4 26.6 27.2 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 26.4 26.1 24.6 -2.0 24.6 29.5 27.1 27.7 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 25.7 26.5 26.6 -0.7 39.4 42.5 26.0 27.1 27.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 28.6 28.2 26.3 -0.4 44.6 46.5 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 20.2 20.9 22.5 -1.6 28.9 34.5 21.1 21.9 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 25.4 26.3 27.4 -0.9 37.6 41.2 25.5 26.6 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------