***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 30.5 28.3 27.8 -1.1 36.8 39.5 28.2 30.0 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 27.7 27.9 27.3 -1.7 31.2 34.3 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 27.6 28.0 27.7 -1.6 34.6 36.3 27.7 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 20.6 22.2 25.6 -0.8 40.7 42.1 21.3 23.1 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 28.3 28.6 25.7 -1.9 32.0 33.0 28.8 30.4 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 26.7 27.2 23.7 -1.4 33.4 35.9 27.1 29.5 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.1 27.8 -1.0 38.5 40.3 27.6 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 16.0 15.3 23.4 -2.4 26.6 28.4 15.9 18.8 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 27.7 27.9 26.2 -1.8 33.0 33.9 27.9 29.7 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 27.5 26.9 24.4 -1.9 32.1 33.0 27.1 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 27.9 27.3 25.6 -2.4 28.2 29.3 28.0 29.9 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 26.9 26.0 24.7 -2.6 24.4 26.8 26.8 29.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 27.8 27.3 24.9 -2.5 24.9 27.2 28.2 30.7 31.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 27.6 26.9 25.7 -1.6 31.8 35.3 27.0 29.5 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 28.2 29.6 28.3 -0.6 43.7 44.6 28.4 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 28.8 28.2 25.4 -2.1 27.8 30.7 28.9 31.5 32.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.9 27.6 26.9 -1.5 33.2 35.8 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 26.5 26.0 23.6 -1.8 32.6 34.3 26.1 28.6 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 27.1 27.1 27.3 -1.9 29.7 32.9 27.4 29.0 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 22.2 21.3 21.4 -2.0 28.4 31.4 21.8 25.1 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 27.5 28.0 27.2 -1.6 35.0 36.1 27.6 29.3 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.2 27.8 26.8 -1.7 32.4 34.4 27.8 28.6 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 27.3 27.2 27.3 -1.9 29.7 33.2 27.3 29.0 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 27.1 26.8 25.7 -1.6 32.9 35.5 26.8 29.0 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 27.9 27.8 26.2 -1.4 34.9 37.2 27.7 29.9 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 27.4 26.5 24.4 -2.5 22.4 26.3 27.9 30.3 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.3 28.0 27.0 -1.1 36.8 39.2 27.6 29.2 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 28.3 30.2 26.7 -0.7 42.1 43.0 28.8 30.4 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 21.9 21.2 22.7 -1.9 31.0 32.9 21.3 24.3 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 27.4 27.9 27.6 -1.4 34.6 36.7 27.8 29.1 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------