***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 94 6 100 29.2 29.3 29.9 1.0 57.5 59.1 28.0 29.1 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 99 1 100 29.2 29.4 29.4 0.3 53.8 53.8 28.4 29.2 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 98 2 100 29.1 29.1 29.7 0.4 54.3 54.8 28.2 29.0 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 21.8 21.9 26.7 0.9 58.0 58.7 20.5 21.5 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 95 5 100 29.5 29.2 27.2 -0.3 47.8 47.8 28.6 29.3 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 28.2 27.5 24.7 -0.4 43.8 44.4 26.7 27.9 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 29.1 29.7 30.0 1.2 60.3 62.4 28.1 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 17.7 16.7 24.3 -1.4 37.0 36.4 16.4 17.1 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 95 5 100 29.1 28.9 28.2 -0.1 49.1 49.6 27.7 28.9 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 93 7 100 28.7 28.3 25.7 -0.5 45.2 45.2 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 29.3 28.4 27.2 -1.1 41.7 41.0 27.9 29.0 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 28.8 27.3 25.6 -1.5 35.6 34.5 27.0 28.0 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 29.9 28.1 26.5 -1.5 34.0 34.7 28.1 28.9 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 28.9 29.4 28.0 0.4 56.5 56.2 27.7 28.8 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 29.5 29.5 30.1 0.9 56.0 58.7 28.8 29.3 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 30.6 29.0 26.8 -1.0 40.4 40.4 28.7 30.1 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 98 2 100 28.6 28.7 29.1 0.7 55.6 56.1 27.7 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 94 6 100 27.9 27.6 24.7 -0.5 44.8 45.3 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 99 1 100 28.7 29.0 29.3 0.1 52.9 52.8 27.6 28.7 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 23.8 22.7 22.4 -1.0 39.2 39.2 22.3 23.5 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 95 5 100 29.0 29.0 29.3 0.4 52.4 54.0 28.2 28.8 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 97 3 100 29.1 29.7 29.1 0.7 56.0 57.6 28.4 29.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 98 2 100 28.8 29.0 29.5 0.2 53.5 53.9 28.2 28.7 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 95 5 100 28.5 28.4 27.7 0.1 51.8 52.4 27.4 28.4 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 98 2 100 29.1 29.3 28.3 0.5 52.5 54.0 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 27.7 27.7 24.9 -1.8 30.2 30.3 27.8 28.9 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 95 5 100 29.0 29.6 29.1 0.9 57.4 58.6 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 29.5 29.5 28.1 0.8 55.9 57.7 28.3 29.2 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 95 5 100 23.4 23.0 23.9 -0.6 43.4 43.9 22.0 23.2 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 97 3 100 29.3 29.7 29.8 0.6 55.1 56.2 27.7 29.2 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------