***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 14.8 14.8 17.5 0.0 52.8 53.1 14.5 14.7 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 14.6 14.6 17.2 0.0 54.2 53.0 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 16.8 16.7 17.8 0.0 54.0 52.5 16.2 16.6 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.6 15.3 0.3 63.8 60.2 11.5 12.2 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.1 15.2 -0.1 51.0 49.8 12.8 13.0 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 12.4 12.4 13.2 0.1 54.6 53.0 11.9 12.4 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 14.9 15.1 17.5 0.2 58.4 57.5 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.0 7.8 12.9 -0.2 44.4 44.8 7.2 7.9 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 14.4 14.4 15.3 -0.1 52.7 50.0 13.9 14.3 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 14.3 14.4 13.7 -0.1 51.6 50.2 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.6 14.7 -0.3 42.3 42.7 13.4 13.7 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.8 13.7 -0.4 39.9 40.4 11.7 12.2 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.9 13.2 -0.3 42.2 42.1 12.8 13.2 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 15.1 15.1 15.4 0.2 59.1 57.3 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 15.7 15.9 17.1 0.4 63.1 59.7 14.7 15.6 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.7 14.2 -0.2 47.0 46.7 14.2 14.8 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.3 17.0 0.2 58.9 56.5 14.6 15.1 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.8 13.0 0.1 58.3 55.5 12.0 12.6 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 14.7 14.6 17.3 0.0 51.5 50.8 14.2 14.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 8.7 8.7 11.0 0.0 52.3 52.3 8.2 8.6 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 14.1 14.0 16.7 0.0 54.1 51.4 13.6 13.9 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 14.0 14.1 17.1 0.1 57.6 55.2 13.6 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 14.2 14.1 17.3 -0.1 49.5 50.8 13.5 14.1 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 14.6 14.9 15.2 0.2 59.5 56.2 13.9 14.6 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.3 16.2 -0.1 49.2 49.2 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.2 12.7 -0.3 39.3 41.7 12.8 13.5 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.8 16.8 0.0 54.0 52.4 14.0 14.7 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 13.2 13.4 15.7 0.3 63.3 59.9 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.0 12.4 0.0 53.0 52.1 11.3 12.0 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 15.0 15.1 17.6 0.1 53.7 53.9 14.4 14.9 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------