***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 13.6 13.8 16.7 -0.7 37.7 41.0 13.5 14.4 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 13.0 13.7 16.4 -0.7 36.9 41.0 13.5 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 15.4 15.7 17.0 -0.7 37.2 41.0 15.3 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.5 14.5 -0.4 41.7 44.2 10.8 11.8 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 11.9 12.6 14.2 -0.8 36.0 38.2 12.3 13.3 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.6 11.9 12.8 -0.4 39.8 42.8 11.8 12.4 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 13.4 13.9 16.7 -0.5 39.9 43.9 13.5 14.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.6 7.0 12.3 -0.8 36.2 37.7 6.8 7.7 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 13.2 14.1 14.3 -0.7 37.4 39.2 13.4 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.6 12.9 -0.6 39.0 40.5 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 12.8 12.9 13.8 -0.9 35.2 36.6 12.7 13.8 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 11.3 11.1 13.0 -0.9 33.0 35.2 11.1 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 12.4 12.4 12.2 -0.7 34.8 38.5 12.4 13.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 13.6 13.9 14.4 -0.6 37.9 41.7 13.8 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.3 16.1 -0.2 46.8 47.3 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 13.6 14.1 13.2 -0.6 37.1 40.0 14.0 14.6 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 13.6 14.2 16.2 -0.6 37.7 42.2 13.8 14.4 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.0 12.2 -0.4 41.8 43.5 11.7 12.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 13.4 13.6 16.4 -0.8 34.8 38.9 13.5 14.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.1 10.1 -0.5 39.6 41.8 7.8 8.6 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 13.0 13.3 15.7 -0.8 36.6 39.0 13.1 14.4 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 12.8 13.2 16.1 -0.7 36.6 40.6 12.9 13.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.0 16.4 -0.9 33.6 38.0 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.0 14.3 -0.5 40.6 43.2 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 13.0 13.3 15.1 -0.8 36.2 39.2 13.2 14.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 12.7 12.5 12.1 -0.8 34.9 36.6 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 13.0 13.9 15.8 -0.7 38.3 40.5 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.9 14.9 -0.2 45.4 47.0 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.8 10.9 11.6 -0.5 39.0 41.1 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 13.3 13.8 16.8 -0.7 38.5 42.1 13.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------