***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.4 17.6 -0.5 42.1 43.7 14.7 15.5 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.7 14.6 17.2 -0.6 40.4 41.8 14.3 15.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.3 17.5 17.8 -0.5 43.4 43.3 17.1 18.0 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.2 15.5 0.0 50.4 49.8 12.3 13.2 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.1 15.6 -0.5 41.7 42.8 12.8 13.6 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.9 13.5 -0.1 46.8 48.0 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.1 17.5 -0.4 44.3 44.8 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.9 7.9 13.1 -0.6 38.8 40.7 7.5 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.4 14.7 15.7 -0.4 43.3 43.6 13.7 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.6 14.0 -0.4 42.0 44.3 14.1 15.0 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 13.3 13.8 15.1 -0.7 37.2 39.9 13.5 14.5 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 11.7 12.0 14.0 -0.7 35.7 38.2 11.7 13.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.8 12.9 13.8 -0.5 37.7 41.1 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.4 15.6 -0.2 48.4 47.7 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.3 17.5 0.0 50.0 50.6 14.8 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.1 14.6 -0.4 40.9 42.8 14.3 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.5 16.9 -0.5 42.9 43.0 15.2 15.8 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.7 13.4 -0.2 48.3 47.5 12.1 12.8 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.9 17.2 -0.7 39.2 40.7 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.0 11.4 -0.2 44.1 45.5 8.4 9.2 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.2 16.9 -0.4 43.4 43.4 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.3 17.1 -0.5 40.7 42.8 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.0 14.1 17.3 -0.6 40.7 41.1 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.0 15.5 -0.2 48.7 46.8 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.3 16.3 -0.7 39.1 40.9 14.2 14.6 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.6 13.2 -0.4 41.7 43.3 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.0 16.9 -0.5 42.1 43.1 14.3 15.9 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.9 16.1 0.1 51.7 51.3 12.6 13.7 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.9 12.7 -0.3 45.1 45.3 12.0 13.0 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.0 17.6 -0.5 42.1 43.0 14.7 15.4 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------