***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 15.9 16.3 19.0 0.8 63.6 63.0 15.3 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 15.5 16.2 18.8 0.9 64.4 64.9 15.0 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 18.3 18.5 19.3 0.9 65.4 65.0 17.2 18.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 14.6 14.7 16.9 1.3 72.0 73.0 12.9 13.2 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 15.0 14.9 17.4 1.0 68.3 67.6 13.4 14.3 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 13.7 13.7 14.2 0.6 64.0 63.4 13.1 13.6 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 16.3 16.4 19.0 1.0 66.6 66.9 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 8.9 9.3 14.2 0.5 62.4 61.0 8.4 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 47 53 100 16.1 16.2 17.4 0.9 66.8 66.8 15.1 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 15.6 16.3 15.4 0.8 66.4 65.5 14.9 15.4 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 15.2 15.6 16.6 0.4 60.8 59.4 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 13.4 13.7 15.3 0.3 59.9 58.2 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.8 15.1 15.1 0.2 55.8 55.4 13.4 14.6 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 16.8 16.8 17.3 1.3 72.1 72.7 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 17.4 17.6 19.0 1.1 71.9 70.8 15.9 16.2 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 16.2 16.3 16.2 0.6 62.8 62.2 15.1 16.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 16.9 16.9 18.8 1.3 69.8 70.1 15.8 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 14.6 14.7 14.9 1.1 69.6 71.0 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 16.1 16.4 18.9 0.9 64.4 64.9 15.4 16.0 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.4 10.3 12.9 0.9 68.4 68.1 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 16.0 16.0 18.5 1.0 68.1 67.7 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 15.9 16.0 19.1 1.3 70.4 71.2 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 15.9 15.8 19.2 1.0 66.3 67.1 14.6 15.4 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 16.4 16.6 17.3 1.2 71.2 71.7 15.3 15.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 15.6 16.1 17.9 0.5 61.4 59.7 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 15.0 15.1 14.0 0.2 57.2 55.5 14.0 14.9 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 15.4 15.7 18.4 0.7 62.8 61.8 14.9 15.3 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 15.1 15.1 17.3 1.1 71.4 71.1 13.0 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.1 14.1 1.0 67.9 68.1 12.4 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 16.2 16.5 19.1 0.9 63.3 63.9 15.4 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------