***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 27.0 41.5 20.7 70.1 47.0 40.6 22.7 42.5 62.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 24.7 27.9 21.4 63.3 42.5 37.3 22.8 35.3 59.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 29.5 45.7 20.1 68.9 48.2 40.0 29.5 47.3 68.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 36.4 51.3 25.7 80.6 54.0 41.9 40.4 51.0 62.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 25.1 47.7 24.4 77.9 53.3 40.1 22.4 43.0 54.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 28.7 45.2 37.3 87.8 53.2 44.1 26.4 40.3 54.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 25.5 31.0 21.5 61.6 43.0 37.1 23.9 35.3 53.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 48.6 77.5 33.8 98.8 57.1 48.7 54.4 69.0 90.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 27.3 44.1 24.4 79.4 54.2 41.8 28.2 39.3 59.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 36.8 49.1 31.4 85.8 51.3 43.7 38.7 46.7 63.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 31.1 49.4 23.8 88.9 59.0 44.5 25.4 47.2 51.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 27.0 50.4 25.6 102.1 61.0 48.8 34.2 43.7 53.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 27.3 45.1 28.7 91.1 56.3 44.7 26.8 40.8 52.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 42.3 54.6 31.8 79.8 48.8 42.6 41.3 55.3 70.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 17.2 25.9 21.8 71.9 49.1 40.2 15.5 26.5 45.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 25.4 43.8 25.5 87.2 55.8 43.3 36.5 42.6 49.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 28.0 33.5 23.5 63.9 42.0 37.2 25.6 42.0 51.1 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 32.6 45.0 36.4 85.6 49.6 44.0 39.3 45.0 54.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 26.4 33.4 20.7 64.8 44.3 38.5 22.8 42.5 62.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 42.2 60.0 46.3 100.6 58.3 50.8 45.9 55.1 70.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 25.0 41.0 20.4 74.6 51.4 41.6 25.3 39.3 65.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 53.0 43.6 23.3 65.0 41.3 37.1 35.3 47.3 56.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 29.3 36.3 20.9 68.9 48.1 40.8 23.8 41.9 58.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 37.2 55.0 29.4 79.3 50.5 42.6 41.8 54.9 66.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 25.3 39.7 24.8 71.7 49.1 39.1 26.2 40.8 48.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 26.1 34.7 24.8 91.7 53.5 46.5 26.6 33.1 42.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 29.0 39.1 23.8 68.5 46.1 39.0 23.4 46.6 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 20.4 36.3 24.7 79.9 53.7 41.2 20.8 33.9 43.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 45.5 68.4 38.2 87.9 51.1 45.7 58.7 67.8 82.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 26.5 29.8 20.5 63.6 44.7 37.5 24.3 39.0 52.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------