***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.3 18.6 7.4 116.8 77.7 49.7 0.0 8.0 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.5 12.6 8.6 109.7 70.9 52.8 1.8 5.4 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.2 14.3 6.3 98.7 70.3 50.1 3.5 9.3 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.9 28.6 7.4 104.1 71.3 53.6 4.4 10.0 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.4 25.2 6.7 95.9 71.8 51.2 2.1 6.9 16.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.9 14.0 11.2 102.8 72.3 55.1 3.0 7.3 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.0 16.5 9.6 118.7 72.9 51.9 3.6 6.6 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 21.9 28.2 9.6 124.6 71.8 55.9 11.8 16.4 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.3 17.7 6.3 89.8 69.1 50.7 3.2 8.9 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.9 20.0 8.8 106.5 68.9 52.5 3.8 7.7 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.8 19.2 6.5 105.5 73.7 54.5 2.4 9.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.0 36.5 7.3 125.3 75.9 56.6 0.1 6.4 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.5 26.1 8.3 111.3 74.5 54.8 3.2 9.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.7 15.4 8.6 92.4 65.4 49.3 1.0 7.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.8 11.0 6.8 99.0 71.5 52.4 1.0 2.5 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.3 23.1 6.9 100.1 72.6 53.7 2.0 7.3 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.6 18.3 10.6 128.0 76.7 53.7 2.3 6.1 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 18.2 16.9 9.9 99.7 64.7 50.1 2.3 13.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.4 13.4 7.5 102.6 70.5 52.7 3.0 7.2 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.5 16.9 12.7 111.8 65.0 52.2 1.5 13.4 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.0 14.0 5.7 91.8 69.0 50.3 2.8 6.4 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.0 19.4 9.5 112.3 72.8 53.0 6.4 10.7 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.6 12.9 6.6 96.3 69.9 50.9 3.0 5.5 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.3 19.1 8.0 95.9 67.2 49.6 1.5 6.8 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.6 18.8 7.9 105.1 74.4 51.0 1.5 10.1 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.5 22.9 6.5 118.9 73.5 58.1 0.7 4.8 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.3 17.3 8.3 112.7 76.0 50.8 0.7 7.5 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.3 19.4 7.0 97.8 70.7 53.5 1.8 8.2 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.2 26.7 10.6 99.5 64.5 49.7 4.6 16.3 28.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.9 13.3 7.8 106.4 70.9 51.7 3.4 8.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------